Birmingham vs Derby

Sat 13 Feb, 15:00 UTC · Matchweek 31 · probabilities and historical statistics

Predicted outcome

Birmingham win · Most likely 57.1%
Draw 23.8%
Derby win 19.1%

Event markets

Both teams to score 55%Avg 56%
Over 1.5 goals 78%Avg 75%
Over 2.5 goals 54%Avg 51%
Birmingham clean sheet 36%Avg 28%
Derby clean sheet 16%Avg 22%
Over 8.5 corners 66%Avg 66%
Over 9.5 corners 54%Avg 54%
Over 2.5 cards 81%Avg 72%
Over 3.5 cards 64%Avg 50%

This match League average

Predicted Score

1-010.4%
2-110.0%
2-09.6%

Team comparison

Attack Defense Form Discipline Cleansheets
  • Birmingham
  • Derby

Did you know?

  • Derby have conceded in each of their last 10 matches.
  • Derby have won just 1 of their last 10 matches.
  • Birmingham's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 8 of their last 10.
  • Derby have won just 2 of their last 10 away matches.

H2H

All 5 meetings on file.

DateHomeScoreAway
12 Sep 26 Derby 1–2 Birmingham
21 Mar 26 Derby 1–0 Birmingham
26 Dec 25 Birmingham 1–1 Derby
30 Jan 22 Derby 2–2 Birmingham
10 Sep 21 Birmingham 2–0 Derby
5meetings
  • Birmingham win · 2 (40%)
  • Draw · 2 (40%)
  • Derby win · 1 (20%)
Avg. total goals 2.40 League avg: 2.61
Over 2.5 goals 40% League avg: 51%
Both teams to score 60% League avg: 56%
Whoever hosts wins 40% League avg: 43%
Avg. total corners 10.40 League avg: 10.31
Avg. total cards 4.80 League avg: 3.82
Birmingham avg. goals 1.40 League avg: 1.30
Derby avg. goals 1.00 League avg: 1.30

Biggest win: Birmingham 2–0 Derby (10 Sep 21).

Birmingham vs Derby head to head: in the previous 5 meetings, Birmingham have won 2 times, Derby have won once and 2 ended in a draw. Birmingham scored 7 goals and Derby scored 5 goals in these matches. The latest meeting, on 12 Sep 2026, was won 2-1 by Birmingham, away at Derby. Across these matches, both teams scored in 3 of 5 and 2 had over 2.5 goals. Birmingham kept 1 clean sheet and Derby kept 1.

How they play

Each line runs across the 24 clubs of the league, from up to the last 19 league games of each. A marker at either end means the most or least of that measure.

Birmingham
  • Selective shooters
Derby
  • Shoots on sight
  • Set piece heavy
  • Possession
    Cedes the ballKeeps the ball
    50% 10th of 24 48% 17th of 24
  • Shot selection
    Shoots on sightWaits for the chance
    0.12 xG a shot 5th of 24 0.09 xG a shot 22nd of 24
  • Set pieces
    Open playSet pieces
    31% of xG 8th of 24 36% of xG 5th of 24
  • Route to goal
    On the groundCrosses and headers
    21% of shots 8th of 24 20% of shots 9th of 24

Where they differ

  • Birmingham wait for better chances than Derby, 0.12 xG a shot against 0.09.
  • Birmingham see much more of the ball than Derby, 50% against 48%.

Ball Stats (Last 10 games)

Birmingham Derby
21 (2.1 avg) Goals 9 (0.9 avg)
151 (15.1 avg) Total Shots 129 (12.9 avg)
58 (5.8 avg) Shots on Target 41 (4.1 avg)
44 (4.4 avg) Blocked Shots 41 (4.1 avg)
51 (5.1 avg) Corners 57 (5.7 avg)
783 (87.0 avg) Attacks 720 (80.0 avg)
401 (44.6 avg) Dangerous Attacks 408 (45.3 avg)
105 (10.5 avg) Key Passes 90 (9.0 avg)
4101 (410.1 avg) Passes 3844 (384.4 avg)
3130 (76%) Pass Accuracy 3007 (78%)
52% Ball Possession 48%

Disciplinary/Tackles (Last 10 games)

Birmingham Derby
0 (0.0 avg) Red Cards 1 (0.1 avg)
21 (2.1 avg) Yellow Cards 18 (1.8 avg)
154 (15.4 avg) Tackles 182 (18.2 avg)
123 (12.3 avg) Fouls 112 (11.2 avg)
20 (2.0 avg) Offsides 26 (2.6 avg)
491 (49.1 avg) Duels Won 503 (50.3 avg)
187 (18.7 avg) Aerial Duels Won 180 (18.0 avg)

Previous Game Statistics (Last 10)

Birmingham

1.5Goals
  • Under · 2 (20%)
  • Over · 8 (80%)
7.5Corners
  • Under · 3 (30%)
  • Over · 7 (70%)
2.5Goals
  • Under · 2 (20%)
  • Over · 8 (80%)
8.5Corners
  • Under · 5 (50%)
  • Over · 5 (50%)
3.5Goals
  • Under · 6 (60%)
  • Over · 4 (40%)
9.5Corners
  • Under · 6 (60%)
  • Over · 4 (40%)
CS
  • Yes · 4 (40%)
  • No · 6 (60%)
BTTS
  • Yes · 5 (50%)
  • No · 5 (50%)

Derby

1.5Goals
  • Under · 2 (20%)
  • Over · 8 (80%)
7.5Corners
  • Under · 1 (11%)
  • Over · 8 (89%)
2.5Goals
  • Under · 5 (50%)
  • Over · 5 (50%)
8.5Corners
  • Under · 1 (11%)
  • Over · 8 (89%)
3.5Goals
  • Under · 6 (60%)
  • Over · 4 (40%)
9.5Corners
  • Under · 4 (44%)
  • Over · 5 (56%)
CS
  • Yes · 0 (0%)
  • No · 10 (100%)
BTTS
  • Yes · 7 (70%)
  • No · 3 (30%)