Bristol City vs Derby

Sat 24 Apr, 14:00 UTC · Matchweek 45 · probabilities and historical statistics

Predicted outcome

Bristol City win · Most likely 41.0%
Draw 28.0%
Derby win 31.0%

Event markets

Both teams to score 54%Avg 56%
Over 1.5 goals 73%Avg 75%
Over 2.5 goals 47%Avg 51%
Bristol City clean sheet 30%Avg 28%
Derby clean sheet 25%Avg 22%
Over 8.5 corners 58%Avg 66%
Over 9.5 corners 45%Avg 54%
Over 2.5 cards 79%Avg 72%
Over 3.5 cards 60%Avg 50%

This match League average

Predicted Score

1-010.2%
2-18.8%
2-07.1%

Team comparison

Attack Defense Form Discipline Cleansheets
  • Bristol City
  • Derby

Did you know?

  • Bristol City have underscored their xG by 0.86 goals per game over their last 10. They have created more than the scoreline shows.
  • Derby have conceded in each of their last 10 matches.
  • Bristol City beat Derby 0-5 in the biggest recent win between these two.
  • Derby have won just 1 of their last 10 matches.

H2H

All 6 meetings on file.

DateHomeScoreAway
30 Jan 26 Bristol City 0–5 Derby
22 Aug 25 Derby 1–1 Bristol City
04 Jan 25 Bristol City 1–0 Derby
31 Aug 24 Derby 3–0 Bristol City
23 Apr 22 Derby 1–3 Bristol City
04 Dec 21 Bristol City 1–0 Derby
6meetings
  • Bristol City win · 3 (50%)
  • Draw · 1 (17%)
  • Derby win · 2 (33%)
Avg. total goals 2.67 League avg: 2.62
Over 2.5 goals 50% League avg: 51%
Both teams to score 33% League avg: 56%
Whoever hosts wins 50% League avg: 43%
Avg. total corners 9.17 League avg: 10.31
Avg. total cards 3.17 League avg: 3.82
Bristol City avg. goals 1.00 League avg: 1.31
Derby avg. goals 1.67 League avg: 1.31

Biggest win: Bristol City 0–5 Derby (30 Jan 26).

Bristol City vs Derby head to head: in the previous 6 meetings, Bristol City have won 3 times, Derby have won 2 times and 1 ended in a draw. Bristol City scored 6 goals and Derby scored 10 goals in these matches. The latest meeting, on 30 Jan 2026, was won 5-0 by Derby, away at Bristol City. Across these matches, both teams scored in 2 of 6 and 3 had over 2.5 goals. Bristol City kept 2 clean sheets and Derby kept 2.

How they play

Each line runs across the 24 clubs of the league, from up to the last 19 league games of each. A marker at either end means the most or least of that measure.

Bristol City
  • Crosses and headers
  • Cedes possession
  • Selective shooters
Derby
  • Shoots on sight
  • Set piece heavy
  • Possession
    Cedes the ballKeeps the ball
    46% 19th of 24 48% 15th of 24
  • Shot selection
    Shoots on sightWaits for the chance
    0.11 xG a shot 7th of 24 0.09 xG a shot 21st of 24
  • Set pieces
    Open playSet pieces
    32% of xG 9th of 24 36% of xG 5th of 24
  • Route to goal
    On the groundCrosses and headers
    25% of shots 2nd of 24 20% of shots 9th of 24

Where they differ

  • Bristol City wait for better chances than Derby, 0.11 xG a shot against 0.09.
  • Bristol City go more through the air than Derby, 25% of shots against 20%.

Ball Stats (Last 10 games)

Bristol City Derby
7 (0.7 avg) Goals 9 (0.9 avg)
138 (13.8 avg) Total Shots 129 (12.9 avg)
44 (4.4 avg) Shots on Target 41 (4.1 avg)
37 (3.7 avg) Blocked Shots 41 (4.1 avg)
58 (5.8 avg) Corners 57 (5.7 avg)
780 (78.0 avg) Attacks 720 (80.0 avg)
429 (42.9 avg) Dangerous Attacks 408 (45.3 avg)
98 (9.8 avg) Key Passes 90 (9.0 avg)
3845 (384.5 avg) Passes 3844 (384.4 avg)
2950 (77%) Pass Accuracy 3007 (78%)
47% Ball Possession 48%

Disciplinary/Tackles (Last 10 games)

Bristol City Derby
0 (0.0 avg) Red Cards 1 (0.1 avg)
13 (1.3 avg) Yellow Cards 18 (1.8 avg)
165 (16.5 avg) Tackles 182 (18.2 avg)
112 (11.2 avg) Fouls 112 (11.2 avg)
17 (1.9 avg) Offsides 26 (2.6 avg)
482 (48.2 avg) Duels Won 503 (50.3 avg)
186 (18.6 avg) Aerial Duels Won 180 (18.0 avg)

Previous Game Statistics (Last 10)

Bristol City

1.5Goals
  • Under · 5 (50%)
  • Over · 5 (50%)
7.5Corners
  • Under · 3 (33%)
  • Over · 6 (67%)
2.5Goals
  • Under · 6 (60%)
  • Over · 4 (40%)
8.5Corners
  • Under · 4 (44%)
  • Over · 5 (56%)
3.5Goals
  • Under · 7 (70%)
  • Over · 3 (30%)
9.5Corners
  • Under · 4 (44%)
  • Over · 5 (56%)
CS
  • Yes · 2 (20%)
  • No · 8 (80%)
BTTS
  • Yes · 4 (40%)
  • No · 6 (60%)

Derby

1.5Goals
  • Under · 2 (20%)
  • Over · 8 (80%)
7.5Corners
  • Under · 1 (11%)
  • Over · 8 (89%)
2.5Goals
  • Under · 5 (50%)
  • Over · 5 (50%)
8.5Corners
  • Under · 1 (11%)
  • Over · 8 (89%)
3.5Goals
  • Under · 6 (60%)
  • Over · 4 (40%)
9.5Corners
  • Under · 4 (44%)
  • Over · 5 (56%)
CS
  • Yes · 0 (0%)
  • No · 10 (100%)
BTTS
  • Yes · 7 (70%)
  • No · 3 (30%)