Cardiff vs Derby

Tue 02 Mar, 19:45 UTC · Matchweek 35 · probabilities and historical statistics

Predicted outcome

Cardiff win · Most likely 56.7%
Draw 21.3%
Derby win 22.0%

Event markets

Both teams to score 68%Avg 56%
Over 1.5 goals 87%Avg 75%
Over 2.5 goals 69%Avg 51%
Cardiff clean sheet 25%Avg 28%
Derby clean sheet 11%Avg 22%
Over 8.5 corners 66%Avg 66%
Over 9.5 corners 53%Avg 54%
Over 2.5 cards 79%Avg 72%
Over 3.5 cards 61%Avg 50%

This match League average

Predicted Score

2-19.2%
3-16.8%
2-06.7%

Team comparison

Attack Defense Form Discipline Cleansheets
  • Cardiff
  • Derby

Did you know?

  • Derby have conceded in each of their last 10 matches.
  • Derby have won just 1 of their last 10 matches.
  • Derby have won just 2 of their last 10 away matches.
  • Both teams have scored in 7 of Cardiff's last 10 matches.

H2H

All 5 meetings on file.

DateHomeScoreAway
22 Aug 26 Derby 2–2 Cardiff
25 Jan 25 Cardiff 2–1 Derby
14 Sep 24 Derby 1–0 Cardiff
07 May 22 Derby 0–1 Cardiff
01 Mar 22 Cardiff 1–0 Derby
5meetings
  • Cardiff win · 3 (60%)
  • Draw · 1 (20%)
  • Derby win · 1 (20%)
Avg. total goals 2.00 League avg: 2.62
Over 2.5 goals 40% League avg: 51%
Both teams to score 40% League avg: 56%
Whoever hosts wins 60% League avg: 43%
Avg. total corners 11.80 League avg: 10.31
Avg. total cards 4.60 League avg: 3.82
Cardiff avg. goals 1.20 League avg: 1.31
Derby avg. goals 0.80 League avg: 1.31

Biggest win: Cardiff 2–1 Derby (25 Jan 25).

Cardiff vs Derby head to head: in the previous 5 meetings, Cardiff have won 3 times, Derby have won once and 1 ended in a draw. Cardiff scored 6 goals and Derby scored 4 goals in these matches. The latest meeting, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 2-2 at Derby. Across these matches, both teams scored in 2 of 5 and 2 had over 2.5 goals. Cardiff kept 2 clean sheets and Derby kept 1.

How they play

Each line runs across the 24 clubs of the league, from up to the last 19 league games of each. A marker at either end means the most or least of that measure.

Cardiff
  • Keeps the ball
Derby
  • Shoots on sight
  • Set piece heavy
  • Possession
    Cedes the ballKeeps the ball
    60% 1st of 24 48% 15th of 24
  • Shot selection
    Shoots on sightWaits for the chance
    0.11 xG a shot 9th of 24 0.09 xG a shot 21st of 24
  • Set pieces
    Open playSet pieces
    23% of xG 15th of 24 36% of xG 5th of 24
  • Route to goal
    On the groundCrosses and headers
    17% of shots 13th of 24 20% of shots 9th of 24

Where they differ

  • Cardiff see much more of the ball than Derby, 60% against 48%.
  • Cardiff wait for better chances than Derby, 0.11 xG a shot against 0.09.
  • Derby get more of their chances from set pieces than Cardiff, 36% against 23%.

Ball Stats (Last 10 games)

Cardiff Derby
21 (2.1 avg) Goals 9 (0.9 avg)
171 (17.1 avg) Total Shots 129 (12.9 avg)
67 (6.7 avg) Shots on Target 41 (4.1 avg)
53 (5.3 avg) Blocked Shots 41 (4.1 avg)
56 (5.6 avg) Corners 57 (5.7 avg)
976 (97.6 avg) Attacks 720 (80.0 avg)
510 (51.0 avg) Dangerous Attacks 408 (45.3 avg)
135 (13.5 avg) Key Passes 90 (9.0 avg)
4760 (476.0 avg) Passes 3844 (384.4 avg)
3957 (83%) Pass Accuracy 3007 (78%)
58% Ball Possession 48%

Disciplinary/Tackles (Last 10 games)

Cardiff Derby
1 (0.1 avg) Red Cards 1 (0.1 avg)
18 (1.8 avg) Yellow Cards 18 (1.8 avg)
135 (13.5 avg) Tackles 182 (18.2 avg)
91 (9.1 avg) Fouls 112 (11.2 avg)
23 (2.3 avg) Offsides 26 (2.6 avg)
473 (47.3 avg) Duels Won 503 (50.3 avg)
131 (13.1 avg) Aerial Duels Won 180 (18.0 avg)

Previous Game Statistics (Last 10)

Cardiff

1.5Goals
  • Under · 2 (20%)
  • Over · 8 (80%)
7.5Corners
  • Under · 3 (33%)
  • Over · 6 (67%)
2.5Goals
  • Under · 3 (30%)
  • Over · 7 (70%)
8.5Corners
  • Under · 4 (44%)
  • Over · 5 (56%)
3.5Goals
  • Under · 5 (50%)
  • Over · 5 (50%)
9.5Corners
  • Under · 4 (44%)
  • Over · 5 (56%)
CS
  • Yes · 1 (10%)
  • No · 9 (90%)
BTTS
  • Yes · 7 (70%)
  • No · 3 (30%)

Derby

1.5Goals
  • Under · 2 (20%)
  • Over · 8 (80%)
7.5Corners
  • Under · 1 (11%)
  • Over · 8 (89%)
2.5Goals
  • Under · 5 (50%)
  • Over · 5 (50%)
8.5Corners
  • Under · 1 (11%)
  • Over · 8 (89%)
3.5Goals
  • Under · 6 (60%)
  • Over · 4 (40%)
9.5Corners
  • Under · 4 (44%)
  • Over · 5 (56%)
CS
  • Yes · 0 (0%)
  • No · 10 (100%)
BTTS
  • Yes · 7 (70%)
  • No · 3 (30%)