Derby vs Bristol City

Wed 09 Dec, 19:45 UTC · Matchweek 20 · probabilities and historical statistics

Predicted outcome

Derby win 34.7%
Draw 27.9%
Bristol City win · Most likely 37.4%

Event markets

Both teams to score 55%Avg 56%
Over 1.5 goals 74%Avg 75%
Over 2.5 goals 49%Avg 51%
Derby clean sheet 26%Avg 28%
Bristol City clean sheet 27%Avg 22%
Over 8.5 corners 71%Avg 66%
Over 9.5 corners 59%Avg 54%
Over 2.5 cards 71%Avg 72%
Over 3.5 cards 50%Avg 51%

This match League average

Predicted Score

0-19.3%
1-28.4%
0-26.2%

Team comparison

Attack Defense Form Discipline Cleansheets
  • Derby
  • Bristol City

Did you know?

  • Derby have conceded in each of their last 10 matches.
  • Bristol City have underscored their xG by 0.86 goals per game over their last 10. They have created more than the scoreline shows.
  • Bristol City beat Derby 0-5 in the biggest recent win between these two.
  • Derby have won just 1 of their last 10 matches.

H2H

All 6 meetings on file.

DateHomeScoreAway
30 Jan 26 Bristol City 0–5 Derby
22 Aug 25 Derby 1–1 Bristol City
04 Jan 25 Bristol City 1–0 Derby
31 Aug 24 Derby 3–0 Bristol City
23 Apr 22 Derby 1–3 Bristol City
04 Dec 21 Bristol City 1–0 Derby
6meetings
  • Derby win · 2 (33%)
  • Draw · 1 (17%)
  • Bristol City win · 3 (50%)
Avg. total goals 2.67 League avg: 2.61
Over 2.5 goals 50% League avg: 51%
Both teams to score 33% League avg: 56%
Whoever hosts wins 50% League avg: 43%
Avg. total corners 9.17 League avg: 10.31
Avg. total cards 3.17 League avg: 3.83
Derby avg. goals 1.67 League avg: 1.31
Bristol City avg. goals 1.00 League avg: 1.31

Biggest win: Bristol City 0–5 Derby (30 Jan 26).

Derby vs Bristol City head to head: in the previous 6 meetings, Derby have won 2 times, Bristol City have won 3 times and 1 ended in a draw. Derby scored 10 goals and Bristol City scored 6 goals in these matches. The latest meeting, on 30 Jan 2026, was won 5-0 by Derby, away at Bristol City. Across these matches, both teams scored in 2 of 6 and 3 had over 2.5 goals. Derby kept 2 clean sheets and Bristol City kept 2.

How they play

Each line runs across the 24 clubs of the league, from up to the last 19 league games of each. A marker at either end means the most or least of that measure.

Derby
  • Shoots on sight
  • Set piece heavy
Bristol City
  • Crosses and headers
  • Cedes possession
  • Selective shooters
  • Possession
    Cedes the ballKeeps the ball
    48% 15th of 24 46% 19th of 24
  • Shot selection
    Shoots on sightWaits for the chance
    0.09 xG a shot 21st of 24 0.11 xG a shot 7th of 24
  • Set pieces
    Open playSet pieces
    36% of xG 5th of 24 32% of xG 9th of 24
  • Route to goal
    On the groundCrosses and headers
    20% of shots 9th of 24 25% of shots 2nd of 24

Where they differ

  • Bristol City wait for better chances than Derby, 0.11 xG a shot against 0.09.
  • Bristol City go more through the air than Derby, 25% of shots against 20%.

Ball Stats (Last 10 games)

Derby Bristol City
9 (0.9 avg) Goals 7 (0.7 avg)
129 (12.9 avg) Total Shots 138 (13.8 avg)
41 (4.1 avg) Shots on Target 44 (4.4 avg)
41 (4.1 avg) Blocked Shots 37 (3.7 avg)
57 (5.7 avg) Corners 58 (5.8 avg)
720 (80.0 avg) Attacks 780 (78.0 avg)
408 (45.3 avg) Dangerous Attacks 429 (42.9 avg)
90 (9.0 avg) Key Passes 98 (9.8 avg)
3844 (384.4 avg) Passes 3845 (384.5 avg)
3007 (78%) Pass Accuracy 2950 (77%)
48% Ball Possession 47%

Disciplinary/Tackles (Last 10 games)

Derby Bristol City
1 (0.1 avg) Red Cards 0 (0.0 avg)
18 (1.8 avg) Yellow Cards 13 (1.3 avg)
182 (18.2 avg) Tackles 165 (16.5 avg)
112 (11.2 avg) Fouls 112 (11.2 avg)
26 (2.6 avg) Offsides 17 (1.9 avg)
503 (50.3 avg) Duels Won 482 (48.2 avg)
180 (18.0 avg) Aerial Duels Won 186 (18.6 avg)

Previous Game Statistics (Last 10)

Derby

1.5Goals
  • Under · 2 (20%)
  • Over · 8 (80%)
7.5Corners
  • Under · 1 (10%)
  • Over · 9 (90%)
2.5Goals
  • Under · 5 (50%)
  • Over · 5 (50%)
8.5Corners
  • Under · 1 (10%)
  • Over · 9 (90%)
3.5Goals
  • Under · 6 (60%)
  • Over · 4 (40%)
9.5Corners
  • Under · 4 (40%)
  • Over · 6 (60%)
CS
  • Yes · 0 (0%)
  • No · 10 (100%)
BTTS
  • Yes · 7 (70%)
  • No · 3 (30%)

Bristol City

1.5Goals
  • Under · 5 (50%)
  • Over · 5 (50%)
7.5Corners
  • Under · 3 (30%)
  • Over · 7 (70%)
2.5Goals
  • Under · 6 (60%)
  • Over · 4 (40%)
8.5Corners
  • Under · 4 (40%)
  • Over · 6 (60%)
3.5Goals
  • Under · 7 (70%)
  • Over · 3 (30%)
9.5Corners
  • Under · 4 (40%)
  • Over · 6 (60%)
CS
  • Yes · 2 (20%)
  • No · 8 (80%)
BTTS
  • Yes · 4 (40%)
  • No · 6 (60%)