Derby vs Middlesbrough

Tue 16 Mar, 19:45 UTC · Matchweek 38 · probabilities and historical statistics

Predicted outcome

Derby win 20.1%
Draw 24.9%
Middlesbrough win · Most likely 55.0%

Event markets

Both teams to score 53%Avg 56%
Over 1.5 goals 76%Avg 75%
Over 2.5 goals 52%Avg 51%
Derby clean sheet 17%Avg 28%
Middlesbrough clean sheet 36%Avg 22%
Over 8.5 corners 77%Avg 66%
Over 9.5 corners 66%Avg 54%
Over 2.5 cards 69%Avg 72%
Over 3.5 cards 48%Avg 50%

This match League average

Predicted Score

0-110.9%
1-29.9%
0-29.6%

Team comparison

Attack Defense Form Discipline Cleansheets
  • Derby
  • Middlesbrough

Did you know?

  • Derby have conceded in each of their last 10 matches.
  • Derby have won just 1 of their last 10 matches.
  • Whoever has hosted has won 5 of the last 6 meetings between these two.
  • Derby have won just 2 of their last 10 home matches.

H2H

All 6 meetings on file.

DateHomeScoreAway
01 Jan 26 Derby 1–0 Middlesbrough
29 Nov 25 Middlesbrough 2–1 Derby
01 Mar 25 Middlesbrough 1–0 Derby
17 Aug 24 Derby 1–0 Middlesbrough
12 Feb 22 Middlesbrough 4–1 Derby
21 Aug 21 Derby 0–0 Middlesbrough
6meetings
  • Derby win · 2 (33%)
  • Draw · 1 (17%)
  • Middlesbrough win · 3 (50%)
Avg. total goals 1.83 League avg: 2.62
Over 2.5 goals 33% League avg: 51%
Both teams to score 33% League avg: 56%
Whoever hosts wins 83% League avg: 43%
Avg. total corners 12.00 League avg: 10.31
Avg. total cards 4.00 League avg: 3.82
Derby avg. goals 0.67 League avg: 1.31
Middlesbrough avg. goals 1.17 League avg: 1.31

Biggest win: Middlesbrough 4–1 Derby (12 Feb 22).

Derby vs Middlesbrough head to head: in the previous 6 meetings, Derby have won 2 times, Middlesbrough have won 3 times and 1 ended in a draw. Derby scored 4 goals and Middlesbrough scored 7 goals in these matches. The latest meeting, on 1 Jan 2026, was won 1-0 by Derby, at home against Middlesbrough. Across these matches, both teams scored in 2 of 6 and 2 had over 2.5 goals. Derby kept 3 clean sheets and Middlesbrough kept 2.

How they play

Each line runs across the 24 clubs of the league, from up to the last 19 league games of each. A marker at either end means the most or least of that measure.

Derby
  • Shoots on sight
  • Set piece heavy
Middlesbrough
  • Keeps the ball
  • Plays on the floor
  • Possession
    Cedes the ballKeeps the ball
    48% 15th of 24 59% 2nd of 24
  • Shot selection
    Shoots on sightWaits for the chance
    0.09 xG a shot 21st of 24 0.11 xG a shot 8th of 24
  • Set pieces
    Open playSet pieces
    36% of xG 5th of 24 23% of xG 14th of 24
  • Route to goal
    On the groundCrosses and headers
    20% of shots 9th of 24 14% of shots 20th of 24

Where they differ

  • Middlesbrough see much more of the ball than Derby, 59% against 48%.
  • Middlesbrough wait for better chances than Derby, 0.11 xG a shot against 0.09.
  • Derby go more through the air than Middlesbrough, 20% of shots against 14%.

Ball Stats (Last 10 games)

Derby Middlesbrough
9 (0.9 avg) Goals 22 (2.2 avg)
129 (12.9 avg) Total Shots 201 (20.1 avg)
41 (4.1 avg) Shots on Target 68 (6.8 avg)
41 (4.1 avg) Blocked Shots 64 (6.4 avg)
57 (5.7 avg) Corners 66 (6.6 avg)
720 (80.0 avg) Attacks 896 (89.6 avg)
408 (45.3 avg) Dangerous Attacks 537 (53.7 avg)
90 (9.0 avg) Key Passes 158 (15.8 avg)
3844 (384.4 avg) Passes 5387 (538.7 avg)
3007 (78%) Pass Accuracy 4678 (87%)
48% Ball Possession 61%

Disciplinary/Tackles (Last 10 games)

Derby Middlesbrough
1 (0.1 avg) Red Cards 0 (0.0 avg)
18 (1.8 avg) Yellow Cards 13 (1.3 avg)
182 (18.2 avg) Tackles 155 (15.5 avg)
112 (11.2 avg) Fouls 89 (8.9 avg)
26 (2.6 avg) Offsides 26 (2.6 avg)
503 (50.3 avg) Duels Won 444 (44.4 avg)
180 (18.0 avg) Aerial Duels Won 130 (13.0 avg)

Previous Game Statistics (Last 10)

Derby

1.5Goals
  • Under · 2 (20%)
  • Over · 8 (80%)
7.5Corners
  • Under · 1 (11%)
  • Over · 8 (89%)
2.5Goals
  • Under · 5 (50%)
  • Over · 5 (50%)
8.5Corners
  • Under · 1 (11%)
  • Over · 8 (89%)
3.5Goals
  • Under · 6 (60%)
  • Over · 4 (40%)
9.5Corners
  • Under · 4 (44%)
  • Over · 5 (56%)
CS
  • Yes · 0 (0%)
  • No · 10 (100%)
BTTS
  • Yes · 7 (70%)
  • No · 3 (30%)

Middlesbrough

1.5Goals
  • Under · 2 (20%)
  • Over · 8 (80%)
7.5Corners
  • Under · 2 (22%)
  • Over · 7 (78%)
2.5Goals
  • Under · 3 (30%)
  • Over · 7 (70%)
8.5Corners
  • Under · 4 (44%)
  • Over · 5 (56%)
3.5Goals
  • Under · 4 (40%)
  • Over · 6 (60%)
9.5Corners
  • Under · 4 (44%)
  • Over · 5 (56%)
CS
  • Yes · 3 (30%)
  • No · 7 (70%)
BTTS
  • Yes · 6 (60%)
  • No · 4 (40%)