Middlesbrough vs Derby

Sat 05 Dec, 12:30 UTC · Matchweek 19 · probabilities and historical statistics

Predicted outcome

Middlesbrough win · Most likely 61.3%
Draw 22.7%
Derby win 16.0%

Event markets

Both teams to score 53%Avg 56%
Over 1.5 goals 78%Avg 75%
Over 2.5 goals 54%Avg 51%
Middlesbrough clean sheet 39%Avg 28%
Derby clean sheet 14%Avg 22%
Over 8.5 corners 81%Avg 66%
Over 9.5 corners 71%Avg 54%
Over 2.5 cards 72%Avg 72%
Over 3.5 cards 52%Avg 50%

This match League average

Predicted Score

1-010.9%
2-010.6%
2-110.0%

Team comparison

Attack Defense Form Discipline Cleansheets
  • Middlesbrough
  • Derby

Did you know?

  • Derby have conceded in each of their last 10 matches.
  • Derby have won just 1 of their last 10 matches.
  • Whoever has hosted has won 5 of the last 6 meetings between these two.
  • Derby have won just 2 of their last 10 away matches.

H2H

All 6 meetings on file.

DateHomeScoreAway
01 Jan 26 Derby 1–0 Middlesbrough
29 Nov 25 Middlesbrough 2–1 Derby
01 Mar 25 Middlesbrough 1–0 Derby
17 Aug 24 Derby 1–0 Middlesbrough
12 Feb 22 Middlesbrough 4–1 Derby
21 Aug 21 Derby 0–0 Middlesbrough
6meetings
  • Middlesbrough win · 3 (50%)
  • Draw · 1 (17%)
  • Derby win · 2 (33%)
Avg. total goals 1.83 League avg: 2.62
Over 2.5 goals 33% League avg: 51%
Both teams to score 33% League avg: 56%
Whoever hosts wins 83% League avg: 43%
Avg. total corners 12.00 League avg: 10.31
Avg. total cards 4.00 League avg: 3.82
Middlesbrough avg. goals 1.17 League avg: 1.31
Derby avg. goals 0.67 League avg: 1.31

Biggest win: Middlesbrough 4–1 Derby (12 Feb 22).

Middlesbrough vs Derby head to head: in the previous 6 meetings, Middlesbrough have won 3 times, Derby have won 2 times and 1 ended in a draw. Middlesbrough scored 7 goals and Derby scored 4 goals in these matches. The latest meeting, on 1 Jan 2026, was won 1-0 by Derby, at home against Middlesbrough. Across these matches, both teams scored in 2 of 6 and 2 had over 2.5 goals. Middlesbrough kept 2 clean sheets and Derby kept 3.

How they play

Each line runs across the 24 clubs of the league, from up to the last 19 league games of each. A marker at either end means the most or least of that measure.

Middlesbrough
  • Keeps the ball
  • Plays on the floor
Derby
  • Shoots on sight
  • Set piece heavy
  • Possession
    Cedes the ballKeeps the ball
    59% 2nd of 24 48% 15th of 24
  • Shot selection
    Shoots on sightWaits for the chance
    0.11 xG a shot 8th of 24 0.09 xG a shot 21st of 24
  • Set pieces
    Open playSet pieces
    23% of xG 14th of 24 36% of xG 5th of 24
  • Route to goal
    On the groundCrosses and headers
    14% of shots 20th of 24 20% of shots 9th of 24

Where they differ

  • Middlesbrough see much more of the ball than Derby, 59% against 48%.
  • Middlesbrough wait for better chances than Derby, 0.11 xG a shot against 0.09.
  • Derby go more through the air than Middlesbrough, 20% of shots against 14%.

Ball Stats (Last 10 games)

Middlesbrough Derby
22 (2.2 avg) Goals 9 (0.9 avg)
201 (20.1 avg) Total Shots 129 (12.9 avg)
68 (6.8 avg) Shots on Target 41 (4.1 avg)
63 (6.3 avg) Blocked Shots 41 (4.1 avg)
66 (6.6 avg) Corners 57 (5.7 avg)
896 (89.6 avg) Attacks 720 (80.0 avg)
537 (53.7 avg) Dangerous Attacks 408 (45.3 avg)
158 (15.8 avg) Key Passes 90 (9.0 avg)
5387 (538.7 avg) Passes 3844 (384.4 avg)
4678 (87%) Pass Accuracy 3007 (78%)
61% Ball Possession 48%

Disciplinary/Tackles (Last 10 games)

Middlesbrough Derby
0 (0.0 avg) Red Cards 1 (0.1 avg)
13 (1.3 avg) Yellow Cards 18 (1.8 avg)
156 (15.6 avg) Tackles 182 (18.2 avg)
89 (8.9 avg) Fouls 112 (11.2 avg)
26 (2.6 avg) Offsides 26 (2.6 avg)
444 (44.4 avg) Duels Won 503 (50.3 avg)
130 (13.0 avg) Aerial Duels Won 180 (18.0 avg)

Previous Game Statistics (Last 10)

Middlesbrough

1.5Goals
  • Under · 2 (20%)
  • Over · 8 (80%)
7.5Corners
  • Under · 2 (22%)
  • Over · 7 (78%)
2.5Goals
  • Under · 3 (30%)
  • Over · 7 (70%)
8.5Corners
  • Under · 4 (44%)
  • Over · 5 (56%)
3.5Goals
  • Under · 4 (40%)
  • Over · 6 (60%)
9.5Corners
  • Under · 4 (44%)
  • Over · 5 (56%)
CS
  • Yes · 3 (30%)
  • No · 7 (70%)
BTTS
  • Yes · 6 (60%)
  • No · 4 (40%)

Derby

1.5Goals
  • Under · 2 (20%)
  • Over · 8 (80%)
7.5Corners
  • Under · 1 (11%)
  • Over · 8 (89%)
2.5Goals
  • Under · 5 (50%)
  • Over · 5 (50%)
8.5Corners
  • Under · 1 (11%)
  • Over · 8 (89%)
3.5Goals
  • Under · 6 (60%)
  • Over · 4 (40%)
9.5Corners
  • Under · 4 (44%)
  • Over · 5 (56%)
CS
  • Yes · 0 (0%)
  • No · 10 (100%)
BTTS
  • Yes · 7 (70%)
  • No · 3 (30%)