Stoke vs Derby

Sat 16 Jan, 12:30 UTC · Matchweek 26 · probabilities and historical statistics

Predicted outcome

Stoke win · Most likely 40.9%
Draw 28.1%
Derby win 31.0%

Event markets

Both teams to score 53%Avg 56%
Over 1.5 goals 73%Avg 75%
Over 2.5 goals 47%Avg 51%
Stoke clean sheet 30%Avg 28%
Derby clean sheet 25%Avg 22%
Over 8.5 corners 67%Avg 66%
Over 9.5 corners 54%Avg 54%
Over 2.5 cards 82%Avg 72%
Over 3.5 cards 65%Avg 50%

This match League average

Predicted Score

1-010.2%
2-18.8%
2-07.1%

Team comparison

Attack Defense Form Discipline Cleansheets
  • Stoke
  • Derby

Did you know?

  • Derby have conceded in each of their last 10 matches.
  • Derby have won just 1 of their last 10 matches.
  • Stoke have outscored their xG by 0.62 goals per game over their last 10. Finishing that hot rarely keeps up.
  • Derby have won just 2 of their last 10 away matches.

H2H

All 7 meetings on file.

DateHomeScoreAway
17 Oct 26 Derby 0–1 Stoke
06 Apr 26 Derby 2–0 Stoke
09 Aug 25 Stoke 3–1 Derby
03 May 25 Derby 0–0 Stoke
02 Nov 24 Stoke 2–1 Derby
30 Dec 21 Stoke 1–2 Derby
18 Sep 21 Derby 2–1 Stoke
7meetings
  • Stoke win · 3 (43%)
  • Draw · 1 (14%)
  • Derby win · 3 (43%)
Avg. total goals 2.29 League avg: 2.62
Over 2.5 goals 57% League avg: 51%
Both teams to score 57% League avg: 56%
Whoever hosts wins 57% League avg: 43%
Avg. total corners 10.43 League avg: 10.31
Avg. total cards 3.43 League avg: 3.82
Stoke avg. goals 1.14 League avg: 1.31
Derby avg. goals 1.14 League avg: 1.31

Biggest win: Derby 2–0 Stoke (06 Apr 26).

Stoke vs Derby head to head: in the previous 7 meetings, Stoke have won 3 times, Derby have won 3 times and 1 ended in a draw. Stoke scored 8 goals and Derby scored 8 goals in these matches. The latest meeting, on 17 Oct 2026, was won 1-0 by Stoke, away at Derby. Across these matches, both teams scored in 4 of 7 and 4 had over 2.5 goals. Stoke kept 2 clean sheets and Derby kept 2.

How they play

Each line runs across the 24 clubs of the league, from up to the last 19 league games of each. A marker at either end means the most or least of that measure.

Stoke
  • Shoots on sight
  • Cedes possession
Derby
  • Shoots on sight
  • Set piece heavy
  • Possession
    Cedes the ballKeeps the ball
    47% 18th of 24 48% 15th of 24
  • Shot selection
    Shoots on sightWaits for the chance
    0.09 xG a shot 22nd of 24 0.09 xG a shot 21st of 24
  • Set pieces
    Open playSet pieces
    32% of xG 10th of 24 36% of xG 5th of 24
  • Route to goal
    On the groundCrosses and headers
    19% of shots 11th of 24 20% of shots 9th of 24

Where they differ

These two are close to each other on every one of these measures.

Ball Stats (Last 10 games)

Stoke Derby
16 (1.6 avg) Goals 9 (0.9 avg)
115 (11.5 avg) Total Shots 129 (12.9 avg)
37 (3.7 avg) Shots on Target 41 (4.1 avg)
25 (2.5 avg) Blocked Shots 41 (4.1 avg)
52 (5.2 avg) Corners 57 (5.7 avg)
783 (78.3 avg) Attacks 720 (80.0 avg)
358 (35.8 avg) Dangerous Attacks 408 (45.3 avg)
89 (8.9 avg) Key Passes 90 (9.0 avg)
3839 (383.9 avg) Passes 3844 (384.4 avg)
3015 (79%) Pass Accuracy 3007 (78%)
47% Ball Possession 48%

Disciplinary/Tackles (Last 10 games)

Stoke Derby
1 (0.1 avg) Red Cards 1 (0.1 avg)
20 (2.0 avg) Yellow Cards 18 (1.8 avg)
154 (15.4 avg) Tackles 182 (18.2 avg)
115 (11.5 avg) Fouls 112 (11.2 avg)
24 (2.4 avg) Offsides 26 (2.6 avg)
499 (49.9 avg) Duels Won 503 (50.3 avg)
178 (17.8 avg) Aerial Duels Won 180 (18.0 avg)

Previous Game Statistics (Last 10)

Stoke

1.5Goals
  • Under · 2 (20%)
  • Over · 8 (80%)
7.5Corners
  • Under · 1 (11%)
  • Over · 8 (89%)
2.5Goals
  • Under · 4 (40%)
  • Over · 6 (60%)
8.5Corners
  • Under · 1 (11%)
  • Over · 8 (89%)
3.5Goals
  • Under · 9 (90%)
  • Over · 1 (10%)
9.5Corners
  • Under · 2 (22%)
  • Over · 7 (78%)
CS
  • Yes · 3 (30%)
  • No · 7 (70%)
BTTS
  • Yes · 7 (70%)
  • No · 3 (30%)

Derby

1.5Goals
  • Under · 2 (20%)
  • Over · 8 (80%)
7.5Corners
  • Under · 1 (11%)
  • Over · 8 (89%)
2.5Goals
  • Under · 5 (50%)
  • Over · 5 (50%)
8.5Corners
  • Under · 1 (11%)
  • Over · 8 (89%)
3.5Goals
  • Under · 6 (60%)
  • Over · 4 (40%)
9.5Corners
  • Under · 4 (44%)
  • Over · 5 (56%)
CS
  • Yes · 0 (0%)
  • No · 10 (100%)
BTTS
  • Yes · 7 (70%)
  • No · 3 (30%)