Swansea vs Derby

Sat 17 Apr, 14:00 UTC · Matchweek 43 · probabilities and historical statistics

Predicted outcome

Swansea win · Most likely 49.8%
Draw 26.2%
Derby win 24.0%

Event markets

Both teams to score 54%Avg 56%
Over 1.5 goals 75%Avg 75%
Over 2.5 goals 50%Avg 51%
Swansea clean sheet 34%Avg 28%
Derby clean sheet 20%Avg 22%
Over 8.5 corners 54%Avg 66%
Over 9.5 corners 41%Avg 54%
Over 2.5 cards 78%Avg 72%
Over 3.5 cards 59%Avg 50%

This match League average

Predicted Score

1-010.7%
2-19.6%
2-08.7%

Team comparison

Attack Defense Form Discipline Cleansheets
  • Swansea
  • Derby

Did you know?

  • Derby have conceded in each of their last 10 matches.
  • Derby have won just 1 of their last 10 matches.
  • Derby have won just 2 of their last 10 away matches.
  • Swansea's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 7 of their last 10.

H2H

All 7 meetings on file.

DateHomeScoreAway
29 Aug 26 Derby 0–3 Swansea
14 Feb 26 Derby 2–0 Swansea
25 Nov 25 Swansea 1–2 Derby
05 Apr 25 Swansea 1–0 Derby
27 Nov 24 Derby 1–2 Swansea
09 Apr 22 Swansea 2–1 Derby
02 Oct 21 Derby 0–0 Swansea
7meetings
  • Swansea win · 4 (57%)
  • Draw · 1 (14%)
  • Derby win · 2 (29%)
Avg. total goals 2.14 League avg: 2.61
Over 2.5 goals 57% League avg: 51%
Both teams to score 43% League avg: 56%
Whoever hosts wins 43% League avg: 43%
Avg. total corners 7.29 League avg: 10.31
Avg. total cards 3.29 League avg: 3.82
Swansea avg. goals 1.29 League avg: 1.30
Derby avg. goals 0.86 League avg: 1.30

Biggest win: Derby 0–3 Swansea (29 Aug 26).

Swansea vs Derby head to head: in the previous 7 meetings, Swansea have won 4 times, Derby have won 2 times and 1 ended in a draw. Swansea scored 9 goals and Derby scored 6 goals in these matches. The latest meeting, on 29 Aug 2026, was won 3-0 by Swansea, away at Derby. Across these matches, both teams scored in 3 of 7 and 4 had over 2.5 goals. Swansea kept 3 clean sheets and Derby kept 2.

How they play

Each line runs across the 24 clubs of the league, from up to the last 19 league games of each. A marker at either end means the most or least of that measure.

Swansea
  • Selective shooters
  • Keeps the ball
  • Plays on the floor
Derby
  • Shoots on sight
  • Set piece heavy
  • Possession
    Cedes the ballKeeps the ball
    58% 3rd of 24 48% 16th of 24
  • Shot selection
    Shoots on sightWaits for the chance
    0.13 xG a shot 1st of 24 0.09 xG a shot 21st of 24
  • Set pieces
    Open playSet pieces
    21% of xG 19th of 24 36% of xG 5th of 24
  • Route to goal
    On the groundCrosses and headers
    14% of shots 21st of 24 20% of shots 9th of 24

Where they differ

  • Swansea wait for better chances than Derby, 0.13 xG a shot against 0.09.
  • Derby get more of their chances from set pieces than Swansea, 36% against 21%.
  • Swansea see much more of the ball than Derby, 58% against 48%.

Ball Stats (Last 10 games)

Swansea Derby
14 (1.4 avg) Goals 9 (0.9 avg)
112 (11.2 avg) Total Shots 129 (12.9 avg)
40 (4.0 avg) Shots on Target 41 (4.1 avg)
35 (3.5 avg) Blocked Shots 41 (4.1 avg)
36 (3.6 avg) Corners 57 (5.7 avg)
774 (86.0 avg) Attacks 720 (80.0 avg)
358 (39.8 avg) Dangerous Attacks 408 (45.3 avg)
87 (8.7 avg) Key Passes 90 (9.0 avg)
5544 (554.4 avg) Passes 3844 (384.4 avg)
4632 (84%) Pass Accuracy 3007 (78%)
60% Ball Possession 48%

Disciplinary/Tackles (Last 10 games)

Swansea Derby
0 (0.0 avg) Red Cards 1 (0.1 avg)
13 (1.3 avg) Yellow Cards 18 (1.8 avg)
182 (18.2 avg) Tackles 182 (18.2 avg)
101 (10.1 avg) Fouls 112 (11.2 avg)
22 (2.2 avg) Offsides 26 (2.6 avg)
471 (47.1 avg) Duels Won 503 (50.3 avg)
125 (12.5 avg) Aerial Duels Won 180 (18.0 avg)

Previous Game Statistics (Last 10)

Swansea

1.5Goals
  • Under · 3 (30%)
  • Over · 7 (70%)
7.5Corners
  • Under · 5 (50%)
  • Over · 5 (50%)
2.5Goals
  • Under · 3 (30%)
  • Over · 7 (70%)
8.5Corners
  • Under · 5 (50%)
  • Over · 5 (50%)
3.5Goals
  • Under · 5 (50%)
  • Over · 5 (50%)
9.5Corners
  • Under · 6 (60%)
  • Over · 4 (40%)
CS
  • Yes · 3 (30%)
  • No · 7 (70%)
BTTS
  • Yes · 5 (50%)
  • No · 5 (50%)

Derby

1.5Goals
  • Under · 2 (20%)
  • Over · 8 (80%)
7.5Corners
  • Under · 1 (11%)
  • Over · 8 (89%)
2.5Goals
  • Under · 5 (50%)
  • Over · 5 (50%)
8.5Corners
  • Under · 1 (11%)
  • Over · 8 (89%)
3.5Goals
  • Under · 6 (60%)
  • Over · 4 (40%)
9.5Corners
  • Under · 4 (44%)
  • Over · 5 (56%)
CS
  • Yes · 0 (0%)
  • No · 10 (100%)
BTTS
  • Yes · 7 (70%)
  • No · 3 (30%)