Wrexham vs Derby

Sat 27 Feb, 15:00 UTC · Matchweek 34 · probabilities and historical statistics

Predicted outcome

Wrexham win · Most likely 48.6%
Draw 26.8%
Derby win 24.6%

Event markets

Both teams to score 53%Avg 56%
Over 1.5 goals 74%Avg 75%
Over 2.5 goals 49%Avg 51%
Wrexham clean sheet 34%Avg 28%
Derby clean sheet 21%Avg 22%
Over 8.5 corners 56%Avg 66%
Over 9.5 corners 43%Avg 54%
Over 2.5 cards 76%Avg 72%
Over 3.5 cards 57%Avg 50%

This match League average

Predicted Score

1-010.9%
2-19.5%
2-08.6%

Team comparison

Attack Defense Form Discipline Cleansheets
  • Wrexham
  • Derby

Did you know?

  • Derby have conceded in each of their last 10 matches.
  • Derby have won just 1 of their last 10 matches.
  • Wrexham's matches have gone over 1.5 goals in 9 of their last 10.
  • Derby have won just 2 of their last 10 away matches.

H2H

All 3 meetings on file.

DateHomeScoreAway
10 Oct 26 Derby 1–1 Wrexham
04 Jan 26 Derby 1–2 Wrexham
27 Sep 25 Wrexham 1–1 Derby
3meetings
  • Wrexham win · 1 (33%)
  • Draw · 2 (67%)
  • Derby win · 0 (0%)
Avg. total goals 2.33 League avg: 2.61
Over 2.5 goals 33% League avg: 51%
Both teams to score 100% League avg: 56%
Whoever hosts wins 0% League avg: 43%
Avg. total corners 10.00 League avg: 10.31
Avg. total cards 4.67 League avg: 3.82
Wrexham avg. goals 1.33 League avg: 1.31
Derby avg. goals 1.00 League avg: 1.31

Biggest win: Derby 1–2 Wrexham (04 Jan 26).

Wrexham vs Derby head to head: in the previous 3 meetings, Wrexham have won once, Derby have not won and 2 ended in a draw. Wrexham scored 4 goals and Derby scored 3 goals in these matches. The latest meeting, on 10 Oct 2026, ended 1-1 at Derby. Wrexham are unbeaten in the last 3 meetings. Across these matches, both teams scored in 3 of 3 and 1 had over 2.5 goals. Neither side has kept a clean sheet against the other.

How they play

Each line runs across the 24 clubs of the league, from up to the last 19 league games of each. A marker at either end means the most or least of that measure.

Wrexham
  • Crosses and headers
  • Shoots on sight
Derby
  • Shoots on sight
  • Set piece heavy
  • Possession
    Cedes the ballKeeps the ball
    48% 14th of 24 48% 15th of 24
  • Shot selection
    Shoots on sightWaits for the chance
    0.09 xG a shot 18th of 24 0.09 xG a shot 21st of 24
  • Set pieces
    Open playSet pieces
    28% of xG 11th of 24 36% of xG 5th of 24
  • Route to goal
    On the groundCrosses and headers
    23% of shots 4th of 24 20% of shots 9th of 24

Where they differ

These two are close to each other on every one of these measures.

Ball Stats (Last 10 games)

Wrexham Derby
12 (1.2 avg) Goals 9 (0.9 avg)
124 (12.4 avg) Total Shots 129 (12.9 avg)
32 (3.2 avg) Shots on Target 41 (4.1 avg)
35 (3.5 avg) Blocked Shots 41 (4.1 avg)
45 (4.5 avg) Corners 57 (5.7 avg)
782 (78.2 avg) Attacks 720 (80.0 avg)
356 (35.6 avg) Dangerous Attacks 408 (45.3 avg)
80 (8.0 avg) Key Passes 90 (9.0 avg)
4260 (426.0 avg) Passes 3844 (384.4 avg)
3403 (80%) Pass Accuracy 3007 (78%)
47% Ball Possession 48%

Disciplinary/Tackles (Last 10 games)

Wrexham Derby
0 (0.0 avg) Red Cards 1 (0.1 avg)
14 (1.4 avg) Yellow Cards 18 (1.8 avg)
162 (16.2 avg) Tackles 182 (18.2 avg)
103 (10.3 avg) Fouls 112 (11.2 avg)
18 (1.8 avg) Offsides 26 (2.6 avg)
436 (43.6 avg) Duels Won 503 (50.3 avg)
154 (15.4 avg) Aerial Duels Won 180 (18.0 avg)

Previous Game Statistics (Last 10)

Wrexham

1.5Goals
  • Under · 1 (10%)
  • Over · 9 (90%)
7.5Corners
  • Under · 3 (33%)
  • Over · 6 (67%)
2.5Goals
  • Under · 6 (60%)
  • Over · 4 (40%)
8.5Corners
  • Under · 4 (44%)
  • Over · 5 (56%)
3.5Goals
  • Under · 8 (80%)
  • Over · 2 (20%)
9.5Corners
  • Under · 6 (67%)
  • Over · 3 (33%)
CS
  • Yes · 1 (10%)
  • No · 9 (90%)
BTTS
  • Yes · 6 (60%)
  • No · 4 (40%)

Derby

1.5Goals
  • Under · 2 (20%)
  • Over · 8 (80%)
7.5Corners
  • Under · 1 (11%)
  • Over · 8 (89%)
2.5Goals
  • Under · 5 (50%)
  • Over · 5 (50%)
8.5Corners
  • Under · 1 (11%)
  • Over · 8 (89%)
3.5Goals
  • Under · 6 (60%)
  • Over · 4 (40%)
9.5Corners
  • Under · 4 (44%)
  • Over · 5 (56%)
CS
  • Yes · 0 (0%)
  • No · 10 (100%)
BTTS
  • Yes · 7 (70%)
  • No · 3 (30%)