Match summary
Luton came from behind to win 2-1 at home to Derby, with the winner arriving in stoppage time. It was goalless at half-time.
Kayden Jackson put Derby ahead with a header in the 58th minute, Thomas Holmes equalised in the 89th minute, and Carlton Morris won it in stoppage time.
The chances backed that up: Luton created 0.97 expected goals (xG) from 18 shots to Derby's 0.60 from 10.
Before kick-off
Luton win
45%
Avg odds 2.11
Draw
30%
Avg odds 3.17
Derby win
25%
Avg odds 3.73
Chances implied by the average closing odds, with the bookmaker margin removed.
Shots, expected goals, timeline, lineups, team and player statistics from Bzzoiro Sports Data (sports.bzzoiro.com). Results and odds from football-data.co.uk. Referee data before 2025/26 from the Transfermarkt datasets project.