Manchester United go into Sunday's 16:30 kick-off against Aston Villa 17th in the Premier League, with one league win from nine games, and the betting markets have noticed. Michael Carrick is the 5/4 favourite in the next Premier League manager to leave market, even after a 3-2 Champions League comeback against Roma in midweek. Villa arrive 10th, five points better off, but beaten 3-0 in Barcelona on Tuesday. Here is what the form, injuries, head to head and prices say about the biggest game on our Man United v Aston Villa fixture page this weekend.
United's league season in numbers
Man United have seven points from nine games: one win, four draws and four defeats, with 10 goals scored and 15 conceded. The only win came on 30 August, 5-2 at home to Ipswich. Their other results on our pages include draws with Everton, Fulham, Tottenham and Leeds, and defeats by Man City, Bournemouth and Chelsea, the last two without scoring: 0-3 at home to Bournemouth on 25 October and 0-2 at Chelsea on 31 October. The home games against Man City, Tottenham and Bournemouth brought one point, one goal and five conceded, and United have not kept a clean sheet in the six league games listed on our fixture page. Europe has been kinder. Two goals down to Roma after 17 minutes on Tuesday, they won 3-2 through a Bruno Fernandes penalty and two goals from Matheus Cunha, who was then sent off for a second yellow card. The Man United 3-2 Roma match page shows United created chances worth 2.72 expected goals to Roma's 1.53.
Villa's mixed week
Aston Villa are 10th on 12 points, with three wins, three draws and three defeats, and a goal difference of minus three. Their recent league results are solid rather than spectacular: a 1-0 win at Newcastle on 17 October, a 2-1 home win over Man City a week later and a 1-1 draw with Fulham on 31 October. Nicolas Jackson has scored five of their league goals in eight appearances, with Johan Manzambi next on two. Villa have scored in every one of the six league games listed on our page. Their midweek was harder. They lost Barcelona 3-0 Aston Villa with a player sent off, and Barcelona's chances were worth 1.86 expected goals to Villa's 0.71. Even so, Villa sit sixth in the Champions League table with nine points from four games, while United are 17th with six. Sunday is a chance for one of them to carry European momentum into the league.
Who is missing
Both sides are without an important defender through suspension. Lisandro Martínez, who has started eight of United's nine league games, is suspended until 22 November, and Matty Cash, with seven starts in nine for Villa, is suspended until 21 November. United's list is longer. Carlos Baleba (hamstring), Marcus Rashford (hip), Luke Shaw, Manuel Ugarte (knee) and Benjamin Šeško (shin) are all listed as injured with no return date, and Patrick Dorgu is given a 75 per cent chance of playing with a hamstring problem. Villa are without Amadou Onana (knee) and Matteo Ruggeri, listed as expected back on 2 January, while Aaron Wan-Bissaka is rated 50 per cent with a hamstring injury. The referee is Chris Kavanagh, who averages 4.1 cards a game across 53 league matches on file, just above the Premier League average of 4.00. Team news can change, so check again close to kick-off.
The head to head
Recent history favours United. Of the 14 meetings on our site, United have won eight, Villa three and three were drawn, with United scoring 25 goals to Villa's 16. The latest was a 3-1 United win at Old Trafford on 15 March 2026, after Villa had won 2-1 at Villa Park on 21 December 2025. Before that, United won 2-0 at home in May 2025, and the October 2024 meeting at Villa Park finished 0-0. The goals markets have history on their side too. Both teams scored in nine of the 14 games, about 64 per cent, and 10 of the 14 had more than 2.5 goals. Villa have kept two clean sheets in those meetings and United four. History is only part of the picture, though: United have conceded 15 league goals this season and Villa 13, so neither defence has been reliable enough to lean heavily on the old pattern.
The odds: what the sack race says
The market that has moved most this week is not on the match. In the next Premier League manager to leave betting, as published by bookies.com at 09:45 GMT on Friday 6 November, Carrick was 5/4 at Parimatch, ahead of Crystal Palace's Pierre Sage at 7/4 with BetVictor and Sunderland's Regis Le Bris at 11/4 with Betano. A price of 5/4 means a £4 stake returns £5 profit, and it implies a chance of about 44 per cent before the bookmaker's margin. Sage's 7/4 implies about 36 per cent and Le Bris's 11/4 about 27. Add up every name in that market and the total is well over 100 per cent, which is the margin at work. Palace face Liverpool and Sunderland host Chelsea at 14:00 on Sunday, so all three prices could move before United kick off. Our fixture page's bookmaker grid for this game had not refreshed when we wrote this, so we quote no match prices here. Check the live grid on the fixture page instead.
Table and what comes next
Going into Matchweek 10, Arsenal lead the Premier League table on 24 points, ahead of Man City on 21 and Brighton on 19. At the other end, United's seven points put them level with Crystal Palace and two clear of Sunderland at the bottom on five. Nott'm Forest are 19th on six. A United win would lift them to 10 points, one more than Coventry and Fulham have now, while a Villa win would take them to 15, level on current points with Liverpool in fifth. United then travel to Sporting CP on 25 November in the Champions League, the same week Villa visit Galatasaray. Every game of the round, with form, lineups and prices, is on our Premier League Matchweek 10 fixtures page.
Bet responsibly
Odds are a bookmaker's view of the chances, not a promise, and no market removes the risk of losing. Only bet what you can afford to lose, set limits before you start, and never chase losses. Betting is for over-18s. If gambling stops being fun, contact the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 or visit BeGambleAware.org. More about how TotalOdds works is on our about page.
Photo credits
The cover shows Old Trafford during a pre-season friendly in August 2007, not this match. Photograph by Ian Mcallister, released into the public domain, via Wikimedia Commons, adapted with club badges, a red VS and a kick-off label.
