Forty points. It is the target that comes up whenever a Premier League club starts looking over its shoulder. But does it actually guarantee survival?

There is no fixed points total that guarantees safety before the season finishes. What matters is finishing above the bottom three. The number needed depends on everyone else's results and, when clubs are level on points, the tiebreakers.

The relegation line in recent seasons

One useful way to compare seasons is to take the final points total of the club in 18th and add one. That gives the number needed to finish strictly above that club on points. It is not the same as the total actually achieved by the team in 17th, and a team level on points could survive through a better goal difference.

Points one above the 18th-placed team: 35 in 2022/23, 27 in 2023/24, 26 in 2024/25 and 40 in 2025/26. Equal points could also be enough on tiebreakers.

  • 2022/23: Leicester finished 18th with 34 points, so 35 would have put a club above them on points. Everton actually stayed up in 17th with 36. See the 2022/23 final table.
  • 2023/24: Luton finished 18th on 26. Nottingham Forest finished 17th on 32 after a four-point deduction. See 2023/24.
  • 2024/25: Leicester finished 18th on 25; Tottenham finished 17th on 38. See 2024/25.
  • 2025/26: West Ham went down with 39 points, while Tottenham survived with 41. Forty points would have put a club above West Ham on points. See 2025/26 and West Ham's final-day report.

Those totals describe the final tables. They do not mean a club could have known it was safe as soon as it reached that number earlier in the campaign.

Is 40 points always enough?

No. Forty is a familiar target, not a rule. A team can finish on the same points as an 18th-placed rival and be relegated on a tiebreaker, or the teams below it could collect more than 40. The recent low thresholds above show why using a single target can also make a survival race look simpler than it is.

When clubs finish level on points, goal difference comes first, then goals scored, followed by further criteria if necessary. The Premier League's relegation guide explains the ordering.

How to follow this season's race

Start with the gap to 18th on the live Premier League table, then check games in hand and the remaining fixtures. Points per game can show a current pace, but it is not a forecast or a guarantee.

Interested in the teams coming up? Our guide to promoted-team survival looks at their recent record.

Method: final 18th-place totals plus one point, with deductions reflected in published final tables. Cover: Fulham v Nottingham Forest in December 2025, illustrative file photograph by Timmy96 / Wikimedia Commons, CC0; cropped and overlaid.