Derby vs Millwall

Sat 23 Jan, 15:00 UTC · Matchweek 27 · probabilities and historical statistics

Predicted outcome

Derby win 30.4%
Draw 27.9%
Millwall win · Most likely 41.7%

Event markets

Both teams to score 53%Avg 56%
Over 1.5 goals 73%Avg 75%
Over 2.5 goals 47%Avg 51%
Derby clean sheet 24%Avg 28%
Millwall clean sheet 31%Avg 22%
Over 8.5 corners 72%Avg 66%
Over 9.5 corners 60%Avg 54%
Over 2.5 cards 77%Avg 72%
Over 3.5 cards 58%Avg 50%

This match League average

Predicted Score

0-110.4%
1-28.9%
0-27.3%

Team comparison

Attack Defense Form Discipline Cleansheets
  • Derby
  • Millwall

Did you know?

  • Derby have conceded in each of their last 10 matches.
  • Millwall have not lost to Derby in their last 7 meetings.
  • Derby have won just 1 of their last 10 matches.
  • Millwall's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 8 of their last 10.

H2H

All 7 meetings on file.

DateHomeScoreAway
31 Oct 26 Millwall 4–1 Derby
10 Mar 26 Millwall 1–0 Derby
10 Dec 25 Derby 1–1 Millwall
22 Feb 25 Derby 0–1 Millwall
19 Oct 24 Millwall 1–1 Derby
23 Feb 22 Derby 1–2 Millwall
06 Nov 21 Millwall 1–1 Derby
7meetings
  • Derby win · 0 (0%)
  • Draw · 3 (43%)
  • Millwall win · 4 (57%)
Avg. total goals 2.29 League avg: 2.61
Over 2.5 goals 29% League avg: 51%
Both teams to score 71% League avg: 56%
Whoever hosts wins 29% League avg: 43%
Avg. total corners 10.71 League avg: 10.31
Avg. total cards 3.14 League avg: 3.82
Derby avg. goals 0.71 League avg: 1.30
Millwall avg. goals 1.57 League avg: 1.30

Biggest win: Millwall 4–1 Derby (31 Oct 26).

Derby vs Millwall head to head: in the previous 7 meetings, Derby have not won, Millwall have won 4 times and 3 ended in a draw. Derby scored 5 goals and Millwall scored 11 goals in these matches. The latest meeting, on 31 Oct 2026, was won 4-1 by Millwall, at home against Derby. Millwall are unbeaten in the last 7 meetings. Across these matches, both teams scored in 5 of 7 and 2 had over 2.5 goals. Millwall kept 2.

How they play

Each line runs across the 24 clubs of the league, from up to the last 19 league games of each. A marker at either end means the most or least of that measure.

Derby
  • Shoots on sight
  • Set piece heavy
Millwall
  • Selective shooters
  • Set piece heavy
  • Crosses and headers
  • Possession
    Cedes the ballKeeps the ball
    48% 17th of 24 49% 11th of 24
  • Shot selection
    Shoots on sightWaits for the chance
    0.09 xG a shot 22nd of 24 0.12 xG a shot 3rd of 24
  • Set pieces
    Open playSet pieces
    36% of xG 5th of 24 35% of xG 6th of 24
  • Route to goal
    On the groundCrosses and headers
    20% of shots 9th of 24 22% of shots 6th of 24

Where they differ

  • Millwall wait for better chances than Derby, 0.12 xG a shot against 0.09.

Ball Stats (Last 10 games)

Derby Millwall
9 (0.9 avg) Goals 17 (1.7 avg)
129 (12.9 avg) Total Shots 141 (14.1 avg)
41 (4.1 avg) Shots on Target 43 (4.3 avg)
41 (4.1 avg) Blocked Shots 37 (3.7 avg)
57 (5.7 avg) Corners 49 (4.9 avg)
720 (80.0 avg) Attacks 879 (87.9 avg)
408 (45.3 avg) Dangerous Attacks 474 (47.4 avg)
90 (9.0 avg) Key Passes 102 (10.2 avg)
3844 (384.4 avg) Passes 3476 (347.6 avg)
3007 (78%) Pass Accuracy 2560 (74%)
48% Ball Possession 47%

Disciplinary/Tackles (Last 10 games)

Derby Millwall
1 (0.1 avg) Red Cards 1 (0.1 avg)
18 (1.8 avg) Yellow Cards 22 (2.2 avg)
182 (18.2 avg) Tackles 132 (13.2 avg)
112 (11.2 avg) Fouls 122 (12.2 avg)
26 (2.6 avg) Offsides 29 (2.9 avg)
503 (50.3 avg) Duels Won 533 (53.3 avg)
180 (18.0 avg) Aerial Duels Won 248 (24.8 avg)

Previous Game Statistics (Last 10)

Derby

1.5Goals
  • Under · 2 (20%)
  • Over · 8 (80%)
7.5Corners
  • Under · 1 (11%)
  • Over · 8 (89%)
2.5Goals
  • Under · 5 (50%)
  • Over · 5 (50%)
8.5Corners
  • Under · 1 (11%)
  • Over · 8 (89%)
3.5Goals
  • Under · 6 (60%)
  • Over · 4 (40%)
9.5Corners
  • Under · 4 (44%)
  • Over · 5 (56%)
CS
  • Yes · 0 (0%)
  • No · 10 (100%)
BTTS
  • Yes · 7 (70%)
  • No · 3 (30%)

Millwall

1.5Goals
  • Under · 2 (20%)
  • Over · 8 (80%)
7.5Corners
  • Under · 0 (0%)
  • Over · 10 (100%)
2.5Goals
  • Under · 2 (20%)
  • Over · 8 (80%)
8.5Corners
  • Under · 3 (30%)
  • Over · 7 (70%)
3.5Goals
  • Under · 4 (40%)
  • Over · 6 (60%)
9.5Corners
  • Under · 4 (40%)
  • Over · 6 (60%)
CS
  • Yes · 2 (20%)
  • No · 8 (80%)
BTTS
  • Yes · 6 (60%)
  • No · 4 (40%)