Derby vs Watford

Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 UTC · Matchweek 18 · probabilities and historical statistics

Predicted outcome

Derby win · Most likely 40.5%
Draw 29.2%
Watford win 30.3%

Event markets

Both teams to score 50%Avg 56%
Over 1.5 goals 69%Avg 75%
Over 2.5 goals 43%Avg 51%
Derby clean sheet 33%Avg 28%
Watford clean sheet 27%Avg 22%
Over 8.5 corners 63%Avg 66%
Over 9.5 corners 50%Avg 54%
Over 2.5 cards 83%Avg 72%
Over 3.5 cards 66%Avg 50%

This match League average

Predicted Score

1-011.4%
2-18.6%
2-07.4%

Team comparison

Attack Defense Form Discipline Cleansheets
  • Derby
  • Watford

Did you know?

  • Derby have conceded in each of their last 10 matches.
  • Watford have won just 0 of their last 10 away matches.
  • Watford have not lost to Derby in their last 4 meetings.
  • Derby have won just 1 of their last 10 matches.

H2H

All 4 meetings on file.

DateHomeScoreAway
21 Feb 26 Watford 2–0 Derby
22 Nov 25 Derby 2–3 Watford
18 Jan 25 Derby 0–2 Watford
24 Aug 24 Watford 2–1 Derby
4meetings
  • Derby win · 0 (0%)
  • Draw · 0 (0%)
  • Watford win · 4 (100%)
Avg. total goals 3.00 League avg: 2.61
Over 2.5 goals 50% League avg: 51%
Both teams to score 50% League avg: 56%
Whoever hosts wins 50% League avg: 43%
Avg. total corners 8.50 League avg: 10.31
Avg. total cards 4.00 League avg: 3.82
Derby avg. goals 0.75 League avg: 1.31
Watford avg. goals 2.25 League avg: 1.31

Biggest win: Watford 2–0 Derby (21 Feb 26).

Derby vs Watford head to head: in the previous 4 meetings, Derby have not won, Watford have won 4 times and none ended in a draw. Derby scored 3 goals and Watford scored 9 goals in these matches. The latest meeting, on 21 Feb 2026, was won 2-0 by Watford, at home against Derby. Watford have won each of the last 4 meetings. Across these matches, both teams scored in 2 of 4 and 2 had over 2.5 goals. Watford kept 2.

How they play

Each line runs across the 24 clubs of the league, from up to the last 19 league games of each. A marker at either end means the most or least of that measure.

Derby
  • Shoots on sight
  • Set piece heavy
Watford
  • Shoots on sight
  • Cedes possession
  • Plays on the floor
  • Possession
    Cedes the ballKeeps the ball
    48% 15th of 24 45% 21st of 24
  • Shot selection
    Shoots on sightWaits for the chance
    0.09 xG a shot 21st of 24 0.08 xG a shot 24th of 24
  • Set pieces
    Open playSet pieces
    36% of xG 5th of 24 23% of xG 13th of 24
  • Route to goal
    On the groundCrosses and headers
    20% of shots 9th of 24 14% of shots 21st of 24

Where they differ

  • Derby go more through the air than Watford, 20% of shots against 14%.
  • Derby get more of their chances from set pieces than Watford, 36% against 23%.

Ball Stats (Last 10 games)

Derby Watford
9 (0.9 avg) Goals 9 (0.9 avg)
129 (12.9 avg) Total Shots 119 (11.9 avg)
41 (4.1 avg) Shots on Target 38 (3.8 avg)
41 (4.1 avg) Blocked Shots 29 (2.9 avg)
57 (5.7 avg) Corners 39 (3.9 avg)
720 (80.0 avg) Attacks 754 (75.4 avg)
408 (45.3 avg) Dangerous Attacks 342 (34.2 avg)
90 (9.0 avg) Key Passes 73 (8.1 avg)
3844 (384.4 avg) Passes 3904 (390.4 avg)
3007 (78%) Pass Accuracy 3161 (81%)
48% Ball Possession 48%

Disciplinary/Tackles (Last 10 games)

Derby Watford
1 (0.1 avg) Red Cards 0 (0.0 avg)
18 (1.8 avg) Yellow Cards 24 (2.4 avg)
182 (18.2 avg) Tackles 143 (14.3 avg)
112 (11.2 avg) Fouls 115 (11.5 avg)
26 (2.6 avg) Offsides 14 (1.4 avg)
503 (50.3 avg) Duels Won 412 (45.8 avg)
180 (18.0 avg) Aerial Duels Won 126 (14.0 avg)

Previous Game Statistics (Last 10)

Derby

1.5Goals
  • Under · 2 (20%)
  • Over · 8 (80%)
7.5Corners
  • Under · 1 (11%)
  • Over · 8 (89%)
2.5Goals
  • Under · 5 (50%)
  • Over · 5 (50%)
8.5Corners
  • Under · 1 (11%)
  • Over · 8 (89%)
3.5Goals
  • Under · 6 (60%)
  • Over · 4 (40%)
9.5Corners
  • Under · 4 (44%)
  • Over · 5 (56%)
CS
  • Yes · 0 (0%)
  • No · 10 (100%)
BTTS
  • Yes · 7 (70%)
  • No · 3 (30%)

Watford

1.5Goals
  • Under · 4 (40%)
  • Over · 6 (60%)
7.5Corners
  • Under · 4 (44%)
  • Over · 5 (56%)
2.5Goals
  • Under · 5 (50%)
  • Over · 5 (50%)
8.5Corners
  • Under · 5 (56%)
  • Over · 4 (44%)
3.5Goals
  • Under · 7 (70%)
  • Over · 3 (30%)
9.5Corners
  • Under · 5 (56%)
  • Over · 4 (44%)
CS
  • Yes · 3 (30%)
  • No · 7 (70%)
BTTS
  • Yes · 4 (40%)
  • No · 6 (60%)