Southampton vs Derby

Sat 21 Nov, 12:30 UTC · Matchweek 16 · probabilities and historical statistics

Predicted outcome

Southampton win · Most likely 59.5%
Draw 22.5%
Derby win 18.0%

Event markets

Both teams to score 57%Avg 56%
Over 1.5 goals 81%Avg 75%
Over 2.5 goals 58%Avg 51%
Southampton clean sheet 35%Avg 28%
Derby clean sheet 14%Avg 22%
Over 8.5 corners 67%Avg 66%
Over 9.5 corners 54%Avg 54%
Over 2.5 cards 78%Avg 72%
Over 3.5 cards 60%Avg 50%

This match League average

Predicted Score

2-110.0%
1-09.3%
2-09.3%

Team comparison

Attack Defense Form Discipline Cleansheets
  • Southampton
  • Derby

Did you know?

  • Derby have conceded in each of their last 10 matches.
  • Derby have won just 1 of their last 10 matches.
  • Derby have won just 2 of their last 10 away matches.
  • Both teams have scored in 7 of Derby's last 10 matches.

H2H

All 2 meetings on file.

DateHomeScoreAway
11 Apr 26 Southampton 2–1 Derby
04 Oct 25 Derby 1–1 Southampton
2meetings
  • Southampton win · 1 (50%)
  • Draw · 1 (50%)
  • Derby win · 0 (0%)
Avg. total goals 2.50 League avg: 2.62
Over 2.5 goals 50% League avg: 51%
Both teams to score 100% League avg: 56%
Whoever hosts wins 50% League avg: 43%
Avg. total corners 8.00 League avg: 10.31
Avg. total cards 4.50 League avg: 3.82
Southampton avg. goals 1.50 League avg: 1.31
Derby avg. goals 1.00 League avg: 1.31

Biggest win: Southampton 2–1 Derby (11 Apr 26).

Southampton vs Derby head to head: in the previous 2 meetings, Southampton have won once, Derby have not won and 1 ended in a draw. Southampton scored 3 goals and Derby scored 2 goals in these matches. The latest meeting, on 11 Apr 2026, was won 2-1 by Southampton, at home against Derby. Across these matches, both teams scored in 2 of 2 and 1 had over 2.5 goals. Neither side has kept a clean sheet against the other.

How they play

Each line runs across the 24 clubs of the league, from up to the last 19 league games of each. A marker at either end means the most or least of that measure.

Southampton
  • Open play side
  • Keeps the ball
Derby
  • Shoots on sight
  • Set piece heavy
  • Possession
    Cedes the ballKeeps the ball
    57% 5th of 24 48% 15th of 24
  • Shot selection
    Shoots on sightWaits for the chance
    0.11 xG a shot 10th of 24 0.09 xG a shot 21st of 24
  • Set pieces
    Open playSet pieces
    19% of xG 21st of 24 36% of xG 5th of 24
  • Route to goal
    On the groundCrosses and headers
    17% of shots 14th of 24 20% of shots 9th of 24

Where they differ

  • Derby get more of their chances from set pieces than Southampton, 36% against 19%.
  • Southampton wait for better chances than Derby, 0.11 xG a shot against 0.09.
  • Southampton see much more of the ball than Derby, 57% against 48%.

Ball Stats (Last 10 games)

Southampton Derby
18 (1.8 avg) Goals 9 (0.9 avg)
149 (14.9 avg) Total Shots 129 (12.9 avg)
52 (5.2 avg) Shots on Target 41 (4.1 avg)
46 (4.6 avg) Blocked Shots 41 (4.1 avg)
53 (5.3 avg) Corners 57 (5.7 avg)
697 (77.4 avg) Attacks 720 (80.0 avg)
376 (41.8 avg) Dangerous Attacks 408 (45.3 avg)
108 (10.8 avg) Key Passes 90 (9.0 avg)
5258 (525.8 avg) Passes 3844 (384.4 avg)
4555 (87%) Pass Accuracy 3007 (78%)
56% Ball Possession 48%

Disciplinary/Tackles (Last 10 games)

Southampton Derby
1 (0.1 avg) Red Cards 1 (0.1 avg)
16 (1.6 avg) Yellow Cards 18 (1.8 avg)
109 (10.9 avg) Tackles 182 (18.2 avg)
81 (8.1 avg) Fouls 112 (11.2 avg)
28 (3.1 avg) Offsides 26 (2.6 avg)
386 (38.6 avg) Duels Won 503 (50.3 avg)
104 (10.4 avg) Aerial Duels Won 180 (18.0 avg)

Previous Game Statistics (Last 10)

Southampton

1.5Goals
  • Under · 4 (40%)
  • Over · 6 (60%)
7.5Corners
  • Under · 3 (33%)
  • Over · 6 (67%)
2.5Goals
  • Under · 5 (50%)
  • Over · 5 (50%)
8.5Corners
  • Under · 6 (67%)
  • Over · 3 (33%)
3.5Goals
  • Under · 6 (60%)
  • Over · 4 (40%)
9.5Corners
  • Under · 6 (67%)
  • Over · 3 (33%)
CS
  • Yes · 3 (30%)
  • No · 7 (70%)
BTTS
  • Yes · 6 (60%)
  • No · 4 (40%)

Derby

1.5Goals
  • Under · 2 (20%)
  • Over · 8 (80%)
7.5Corners
  • Under · 1 (11%)
  • Over · 8 (89%)
2.5Goals
  • Under · 5 (50%)
  • Over · 5 (50%)
8.5Corners
  • Under · 1 (11%)
  • Over · 8 (89%)
3.5Goals
  • Under · 6 (60%)
  • Over · 4 (40%)
9.5Corners
  • Under · 4 (44%)
  • Over · 5 (56%)
CS
  • Yes · 0 (0%)
  • No · 10 (100%)
BTTS
  • Yes · 7 (70%)
  • No · 3 (30%)