Watford vs Derby

Sat 13 Mar, 15:00 UTC · Matchweek 37 · probabilities and historical statistics

Predicted outcome

Watford win · Most likely 38.2%
Draw 28.7%
Derby win 33.1%

Event markets

Both teams to score 52%Avg 56%
Over 1.5 goals 71%Avg 75%
Over 2.5 goals 46%Avg 51%
Watford clean sheet 30%Avg 28%
Derby clean sheet 27%Avg 22%
Over 8.5 corners 61%Avg 66%
Over 9.5 corners 47%Avg 54%
Over 2.5 cards 85%Avg 72%
Over 3.5 cards 70%Avg 50%

This match League average

Predicted Score

1-010.3%
2-18.4%
2-06.7%

Team comparison

Attack Defense Form Discipline Cleansheets
  • Watford
  • Derby

Did you know?

  • Derby have conceded in each of their last 10 matches.
  • Watford have not lost to Derby in their last 4 meetings.
  • Derby have won just 1 of their last 10 matches.
  • Derby have won just 2 of their last 10 away matches.

H2H

All 4 meetings on file.

DateHomeScoreAway
21 Feb 26 Watford 2–0 Derby
22 Nov 25 Derby 2–3 Watford
18 Jan 25 Derby 0–2 Watford
24 Aug 24 Watford 2–1 Derby
4meetings
  • Watford win · 4 (100%)
  • Draw · 0 (0%)
  • Derby win · 0 (0%)
Avg. total goals 3.00 League avg: 2.62
Over 2.5 goals 50% League avg: 51%
Both teams to score 50% League avg: 56%
Whoever hosts wins 50% League avg: 43%
Avg. total corners 8.50 League avg: 10.31
Avg. total cards 4.00 League avg: 3.82
Watford avg. goals 2.25 League avg: 1.31
Derby avg. goals 0.75 League avg: 1.31

Biggest win: Watford 2–0 Derby (21 Feb 26).

Watford vs Derby head to head: in the previous 4 meetings, Watford have won 4 times, Derby have not won and none ended in a draw. Watford scored 9 goals and Derby scored 3 goals in these matches. The latest meeting, on 21 Feb 2026, was won 2-0 by Watford, at home against Derby. Watford have won each of the last 4 meetings. Across these matches, both teams scored in 2 of 4 and 2 had over 2.5 goals. Watford kept 2 clean sheets.

How they play

Each line runs across the 24 clubs of the league, from up to the last 19 league games of each. A marker at either end means the most or least of that measure.

Watford
  • Shoots on sight
  • Cedes possession
  • Plays on the floor
Derby
  • Shoots on sight
  • Set piece heavy
  • Possession
    Cedes the ballKeeps the ball
    45% 21st of 24 48% 15th of 24
  • Shot selection
    Shoots on sightWaits for the chance
    0.08 xG a shot 24th of 24 0.09 xG a shot 21st of 24
  • Set pieces
    Open playSet pieces
    23% of xG 13th of 24 36% of xG 5th of 24
  • Route to goal
    On the groundCrosses and headers
    14% of shots 21st of 24 20% of shots 9th of 24

Where they differ

  • Derby go more through the air than Watford, 20% of shots against 14%.
  • Derby get more of their chances from set pieces than Watford, 36% against 23%.

Ball Stats (Last 10 games)

Watford Derby
9 (0.9 avg) Goals 9 (0.9 avg)
119 (11.9 avg) Total Shots 129 (12.9 avg)
38 (3.8 avg) Shots on Target 41 (4.1 avg)
29 (2.9 avg) Blocked Shots 41 (4.1 avg)
39 (3.9 avg) Corners 57 (5.7 avg)
754 (75.4 avg) Attacks 720 (80.0 avg)
342 (34.2 avg) Dangerous Attacks 408 (45.3 avg)
79 (7.9 avg) Key Passes 90 (9.0 avg)
3904 (390.4 avg) Passes 3844 (384.4 avg)
3161 (81%) Pass Accuracy 3007 (78%)
48% Ball Possession 48%

Disciplinary/Tackles (Last 10 games)

Watford Derby
0 (0.0 avg) Red Cards 1 (0.1 avg)
24 (2.4 avg) Yellow Cards 18 (1.8 avg)
143 (14.3 avg) Tackles 182 (18.2 avg)
115 (11.5 avg) Fouls 112 (11.2 avg)
14 (1.4 avg) Offsides 26 (2.6 avg)
451 (45.1 avg) Duels Won 503 (50.3 avg)
139 (13.9 avg) Aerial Duels Won 180 (18.0 avg)

Previous Game Statistics (Last 10)

Watford

1.5Goals
  • Under · 4 (40%)
  • Over · 6 (60%)
7.5Corners
  • Under · 4 (44%)
  • Over · 5 (56%)
2.5Goals
  • Under · 5 (50%)
  • Over · 5 (50%)
8.5Corners
  • Under · 5 (56%)
  • Over · 4 (44%)
3.5Goals
  • Under · 7 (70%)
  • Over · 3 (30%)
9.5Corners
  • Under · 5 (56%)
  • Over · 4 (44%)
CS
  • Yes · 3 (30%)
  • No · 7 (70%)
BTTS
  • Yes · 4 (40%)
  • No · 6 (60%)

Derby

1.5Goals
  • Under · 2 (20%)
  • Over · 8 (80%)
7.5Corners
  • Under · 1 (11%)
  • Over · 8 (89%)
2.5Goals
  • Under · 5 (50%)
  • Over · 5 (50%)
8.5Corners
  • Under · 1 (11%)
  • Over · 8 (89%)
3.5Goals
  • Under · 6 (60%)
  • Over · 4 (40%)
9.5Corners
  • Under · 4 (44%)
  • Over · 5 (56%)
CS
  • Yes · 0 (0%)
  • No · 10 (100%)
BTTS
  • Yes · 7 (70%)
  • No · 3 (30%)