Dortmund at 1.35. Bayern at 1.40. Leipzig at 1.50. Freiburg at 1.52. Four Bundesliga favourites, four prices that look like the safest things on the card, and one very tempting idea: put them all in the same accumulator. The best prices on our fixture pages multiply to 4.31, which sounds like a fair reward for four near-certainties. It is also a price that says all four win only about one time in four. Here is why, game by game, using the form, head to head and injury data on TotalOdds. This is not a tip. It is a reason to slow down before you build the bet.

The maths that catches everyone out

A price is the market's opinion. Divide 1 by 1.35 and you get about 74 per cent. Do the same for the other three and you get 71, 67 and 66 per cent. Every one of those looks comfortable. But an accumulator needs every leg to win, so the chances multiply instead of adding up: 74 per cent of 71 per cent is 53, then 35, then 23. That is the shrinking bar in the graphic below. A £10 stake on all four at these prices returns about £43 if everything lands, and the sums say that happens roughly one time in four, before any bookmaker margin. Two warnings. These are the best prices from different bookmakers, so no single firm will pay 4.31 and a real accumulator would pay a little less. And a draw is as bad as a defeat for a leg, which matters more than it sounds.

Chart of an accumulator on Dortmund, Bayern, Leipzig and Freiburg: the chance that every leg wins falls from 74 per cent after one leg to 53, 35 and 23 per cent, at a combined price of 4.31.

Dortmund: unbeaten, but they keep drawing

Borussia Dortmund are the shortest price on the card at 1.35, with Elversberg at 9.40 and the draw at 6.40. The case for the favourite is solid. They are second on 18 points, unbeaten, and have conceded only six goals, the fewest in the Bundesliga. The catch sits in the other column. Three of their eight league games have been draws, including a 2-2 at Bayern on 31 October and a goalless game at Union Berlin on 17 October, so unbeaten does not mean winning. Elversberg are no pushovers: seventh on 13 points, 4-1 winners at Mainz on 30 October, and scorers of 16 goals in eight games. Our records hold no earlier meeting between the clubs. Serhou Guirassy, joint top scorer with three, is doubtful with a thigh problem and listed as expected back on 19 November.

Dortmund v Elversberg on Saturday 7 November at 14:30: the Dortmund price of 1.35, about 74 per cent implied, with the catch that Dortmund have drawn three of eight, over an aerial view of Signal Iduna Park.

Bayern: a short price in a game that never stays quiet

Bayern Munich are 1.40 at Mainz, about 71 per cent before margin. They lead the league with 27 goals, but they have drawn three of eight, and Mainz are a more awkward host than the table suggests. In 16 meetings on our site both teams scored in 14, and all 16 had more than 2.5 goals. Mainz won 2-1 at home on 14 December 2024, and last April it finished 4-3 to Bayern, so a win is rarely comfortable. Bayern have kept only two clean sheets in those 16 meetings. They are also without Ismael Saibari, an ever-present this season, injured with an ankle problem. Mainz have lost their last two, but both were goal-heavy games, 2-3 and 1-4. The accumulator needs Bayern to win, not to score five, and that is a narrower target than it sounds. Our full Mainz v Bayern Munich preview has the detail.

Mainz v Bayern Munich on Saturday 7 November at 14:30: the Bayern price of 1.40, about 71 per cent implied, with the catch that Bayern have drawn three of eight, over a view of the Allianz Arena.

Leipzig: never beaten, but often held

RB Leipzig are 1.50, and they own the head to head most favourites would want: unbeaten in 16 meetings with Augsburg, with 10 wins. Look at the other number, though. Six of those 16 were draws. For an accumulator leg, a draw is as costly as a defeat. Augsburg are tenth on nine points and winless in six, but they have scored in every league game this season and netted nine in their last five, while conceding 12. Leipzig are fourth on 15 and fully capable, yet they were beaten 1-6 at Bayern on 17 October, a reminder that heavy defeats can sit right behind a run of wins. Augsburg's Calvin Brackelmann, who has started seven of eight, is injured with a head injury and listed as expected back on 7 November, the day of the game. Leipzig list no key absences.

RB Leipzig v Augsburg on Saturday 7 November at 14:30: the Leipzig price of 1.50, about 67 per cent implied, with the catch that six of 16 meetings were draws, over a matchday view inside the Red Bull Arena.

Freiburg: the favourite with the awkward opponent

This is the leg with the best story. Freiburg are 1.52 on Sunday afternoon, third on 16 points, while Union Berlin are 16th on seven with a goal difference of minus 12. On paper it is the easiest leg of the four. Then look at the head to head. In 14 meetings Union have won seven, Freiburg two and five were drawn, and Union are unbeaten in the last seven, including a 1-0 win at Freiburg on 15 March 2026. Union have also drawn their last three league games, 0-0 against Dortmund, 1-1 at Augsburg and 1-1 with FC Cologne, and a draw would sink this leg as surely as a defeat. Freiburg have Philipp Treu, who has started six of eight, doubtful with an ankle problem. Union's key absence is the suspended Felix Uduokhai, who has started six of eight and is listed as back on 8 November.

Freiburg v Union Berlin on Sunday 8 November at 16:30: the Freiburg price of 1.52, about 66 per cent implied, with the catch that Union are unbeaten in the last seven meetings, over the Europa-Park Stadion.

If you do bet a four-fold

Nothing here says the favourites will lose. Dortmund, Bayern, Leipzig and Freiburg all have good reasons to be priced this short, and some weekends all four win. The point is the price. Compare the same four prices at the same bookmaker, because the best prices above come from different firms. Favourites that draw often are exposed on the match result, which is why some bettors look at double chance or draw no bet, though both pay less. Every extra leg adds return and risk together, so three legs pay less than four but win more often. And decide a stake you could lose without regret. Odds are a view of the chances, not a promise, and the prices above move before kick-off.

Bet responsibly

Odds are a bookmaker's view of the chances, not a promise, and no market removes the risk of losing. Only bet what you can afford to lose, set limits before you start, and never chase losses. Betting is for over-18s. If gambling stops being fun, contact the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 or visit BeGambleAware.org. Prices were captured from our fixture pages at 16:09 UTC on Friday 6 November. More about how TotalOdds works is on our about page.

Photo credits

Stadium photographs from Wikimedia Commons, adapted with club badges, prices and match data from TotalOdds. Signal Iduna Park at night by Marvin Ronsdorf, CC0. Signal Iduna Park from the air by Arne Müseler, CC BY-SA 3.0 de, and the Dortmund graphic is shared under the same licence. Allianz Arena by Flocci Nivis, CC BY 4.0. Red Bull Arena by Markus Unger, CC BY 2.5. Europa-Park Stadion by Andreas Schwarzkopf, CC BY-SA 4.0, and the Freiburg graphic is shared under the same licence. The photographs are file pictures of the grounds and do not show these matches.