A team wins 3-1, but the losing side created the better chances. How can both be true? Expected goals, usually shortened to xG, helps explain the difference between the final score and the opportunities behind it.

What does xG mean in football?

Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shooting chance, based on how often similar chances have been scored in the past. A higher value means a better chance, not a guaranteed goal.

Imagine a chance rated at 0.10 xG. That represents a 10 per cent estimated chance of scoring, or roughly one goal in ten similar attempts. A shot rated at 0.50 xG is a much bigger opportunity. Both can be missed, and either can be scored.

A team's xG total adds the values of its shots. Two chances worth 0.50 each add up to 1.00 xG. That does not mean the team must score exactly once.

A real example: more xG, fewer goals

In Crystal Palace's 3-1 win over Nottingham Forest on 11 October 2026, Forest recorded 3.80 xG from 24 shots. Palace had 2.43 xG from 13 shots, according to the match page.

Forest's higher total suggests they created more chance value overall. Palace still scored three times and won. The score tells you what happened; xG adds context about the shots that produced it. Neither figure changes the result.

A second example is Chelsea 2-2 Hull on 12 September 2026. Hull's 13 shots totalled 1.82 xG, while Chelsea's 12 were worth 1.21. The teams scored the same number of goals even though their chances did not have the same estimated value.

How is expected goals calculated?

Each shot is assigned a value between zero and one. Factors can include its distance and angle from goal, the type of attempt and the situation in which it was taken. Different data providers use different information and methods, so their xG figures for the same match can differ. The Premier League's glossary describes xG as a measure of chance quality based on similar opportunities.

What xG can and cannot tell you

xG helps compare the quality of chances, alongside the number of shots and the score. Over a run of matches, it can help show whether a team is regularly creating or conceding opportunities. On our Premier League xG table, xGA means expected goals against, while xGD is the difference between xG created and conceded. The player xG table lets you explore individual totals.

It does not capture everything that happens before a shot, explain every tactical detail or prove who deserved to win. Finishing, goalkeeping and chance variation all affect the score. A team that has scored fewer goals than its xG is not guaranteed to make up the difference later.

For a fuller picture, read xG with the score, shots and shots on target. Our guide to shots and shots on target explains those numbers too. Check the sample and data provider when comparing figures, especially early in a season.

Cover: Fulham v Everton in May 2025, used as an illustrative file photograph. Photo: Timmy96 / Wikimedia Commons, CC0.