Nottingham Forest have given their supporters two very different stories this season. The league table says they have work to do. The chances they are creating suggest there is more to their attack than the goal column shows.

After ten Premier League matches, Forest have scored nine goals from 17.8 expected goals (xG) in the TotalOdds xG table. That is a gap of roughly nine goals, but it is a description of what has happened, not a promise that the missing goals will arrive.

Forest's finishing gap, explained

Expected goals measures the quality of a team's shots. Add those estimates together and you get a picture of the chances created. Forest's 17.8 xG suggests they have been getting opportunities, while nine actual goals show how difficult turning them into points has been. See our guide to xG for the full explanation.

Different providers use different methods. The TotalOdds table credits Understat for its xG data; the Premier League's earlier analysis, based on a nine-match sample, also identified Forest's finishing shortfall. Those figures should not be mixed as if they came from the same source or the same date.

More chances do not always mean more points

The 3-1 defeat at Crystal Palace is a striking example. Forest recorded 3.80 xG from 24 shots on our match page; Palace scored three times from 2.43 xG. Forest created more estimated chance value and still lost. Finishing and goalkeeping matter, and one match cannot explain an entire season.

There was a happier outcome against Manchester City. Forest won 3-1 before the international break, with Liam Delap scoring twice. City had more of the ball, but Forest made their moments count. The Matchweek 10 roundup has the full match numbers.

What should fans and bettors watch?

Look at the quality and location of chances alongside shots on target, the opposition and team news. A big gap between goals and xG can raise a question about finishing, but it does not tell us when a player will score or make a future result certain.

For goals and both-teams-to-score markets, check both sides rather than assuming Forest's chance creation settles the bet. Our BTTS guide explains how that market works, and the Premier League hub has the latest table and fixtures.

Figures are a snapshot after ten league games, checked 10 November 2026. Cover: Fulham v Nottingham Forest, December 2025, illustrative file photograph by Timmy96 / Wikimedia Commons, CC0; cropped and overlaid.