Millwall vs Burnley

Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 UTC · Matchweek 18 · probabilities and historical statistics

Predicted outcome

Millwall win · Most likely 48.1%
Draw 24.6%
Burnley win 27.3%

Limited history for Burnley. Fewer past top flight matches on record means these figures are less reliable than usual.

Event markets

Both teams to score 62%Avg 56%
Over 1.5 goals 81%Avg 75%
Over 2.5 goals 60%Avg 51%
Millwall clean sheet 26%Avg 28%
Burnley clean sheet 17%Avg 22%
Over 8.5 corners 75%Avg 66%
Over 9.5 corners 64%Avg 54%
Over 2.5 cards 70%Avg 72%
Over 3.5 cards 49%Avg 50%

This match League average

Predicted Score

2-19.4%
1-07.8%
2-07.0%

Team comparison

Attack Defense Form Discipline Cleansheets
  • Millwall
  • Burnley

Did you know?

  • Burnley have won just 1 of their last 10 matches.
  • Burnley's matches have gone over 1.5 goals in 9 of their last 10.
  • Millwall's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 8 of their last 10.
  • Both teams have scored in 8 of Burnley's last 10 matches.

H2H

All 4 meetings on file.

DateHomeScoreAway
03 May 25 Burnley 3–1 Millwall
03 Nov 24 Millwall 1–0 Burnley
21 Feb 23 Millwall 1–1 Burnley
30 Aug 22 Burnley 2–0 Millwall
4meetings
  • Millwall win · 1 (25%)
  • Draw · 1 (25%)
  • Burnley win · 2 (50%)
Avg. total goals 2.25 League avg: 2.61
Over 2.5 goals 25% League avg: 51%
Both teams to score 50% League avg: 56%
Whoever hosts wins 75% League avg: 43%
Avg. total corners 8.25 League avg: 10.31
Avg. total cards 2.50 League avg: 3.82
Millwall avg. goals 0.75 League avg: 1.31
Burnley avg. goals 1.50 League avg: 1.31

Biggest win: Burnley 3–1 Millwall (03 May 25).

Millwall vs Burnley head to head: in the previous 4 meetings, Millwall have won once, Burnley have won 2 times and 1 ended in a draw. Millwall scored 3 goals and Burnley scored 6 goals in these matches. The latest meeting, on 3 May 2025, was won 3-1 by Burnley, at home against Millwall. Across these matches, both teams scored in 2 of 4 and 1 had over 2.5 goals. Millwall kept 1 clean sheet and Burnley kept 1.

How they play

Each line runs across the 24 clubs of the league, from up to the last 19 league games of each. A marker at either end means the most or least of that measure.

Millwall
  • Selective shooters
  • Set piece heavy
  • Crosses and headers
Burnley
  • Plays on the floor
  • Open play side
  • Possession
    Cedes the ballKeeps the ball
    49% 13th of 24 48% 16th of 24
  • Shot selection
    Shoots on sightWaits for the chance
    0.12 xG a shot 4th of 24 0.11 xG a shot 13th of 24
  • Set pieces
    Open playSet pieces
    35% of xG 6th of 24 22% of xG 18th of 24
  • Route to goal
    On the groundCrosses and headers
    22% of shots 7th of 24 12% of shots 24th of 24

Where they differ

  • Millwall go more through the air than Burnley, 22% of shots against 12%.
  • Millwall get more of their chances from set pieces than Burnley, 35% against 22%.
  • Millwall wait for better chances than Burnley, 0.12 xG a shot against 0.11.

Ball Stats (Last 10 games)

Millwall Burnley
13 (1.3 avg) Goals 16 (1.6 avg)
135 (13.5 avg) Total Shots 138 (13.8 avg)
40 (4.0 avg) Shots on Target 45 (4.5 avg)
37 (3.7 avg) Blocked Shots 43 (4.3 avg)
50 (5.0 avg) Corners 44 (4.4 avg)
913 (91.3 avg) Attacks 697 (77.4 avg)
491 (49.1 avg) Dangerous Attacks 351 (39.0 avg)
94 (10.4 avg) Key Passes 82 (9.1 avg)
3528 (352.8 avg) Passes 4096 (409.6 avg)
2607 (74%) Pass Accuracy 3225 (79%)
47% Ball Possession 46%

Disciplinary/Tackles (Last 10 games)

Millwall Burnley
0 (0.0 avg) Red Cards 0 (0.0 avg)
24 (2.4 avg) Yellow Cards 19 (1.9 avg)
133 (13.3 avg) Tackles 153 (15.3 avg)
123 (12.3 avg) Fouls 94 (9.4 avg)
29 (2.9 avg) Offsides 30 (3.3 avg)
478 (53.1 avg) Duels Won 367 (40.8 avg)
223 (24.8 avg) Aerial Duels Won 96 (10.7 avg)

Previous Game Statistics (Last 10)

Millwall

1.5Goals
  • Under · 2 (20%)
  • Over · 8 (80%)
7.5Corners
  • Under · 0 (0%)
  • Over · 9 (100%)
2.5Goals
  • Under · 2 (20%)
  • Over · 8 (80%)
8.5Corners
  • Under · 3 (33%)
  • Over · 6 (67%)
3.5Goals
  • Under · 5 (50%)
  • Over · 5 (50%)
9.5Corners
  • Under · 4 (44%)
  • Over · 5 (56%)
CS
  • Yes · 1 (10%)
  • No · 9 (90%)
BTTS
  • Yes · 6 (60%)
  • No · 4 (40%)

Burnley

1.5Goals
  • Under · 1 (10%)
  • Over · 9 (90%)
7.5Corners
  • Under · 2 (22%)
  • Over · 7 (78%)
2.5Goals
  • Under · 4 (40%)
  • Over · 6 (60%)
8.5Corners
  • Under · 4 (44%)
  • Over · 5 (56%)
3.5Goals
  • Under · 5 (50%)
  • Over · 5 (50%)
9.5Corners
  • Under · 7 (78%)
  • Over · 2 (22%)
CS
  • Yes · 2 (20%)
  • No · 8 (80%)
BTTS
  • Yes · 8 (80%)
  • No · 2 (20%)