Derby vs Burnley

Sat 20 Feb, 15:00 UTC · Matchweek 33 · probabilities and historical statistics

Predicted outcome

Derby win 33.6%
Draw 26.9%
Burnley win · Most likely 39.5%

Limited history for Burnley. Fewer past top flight matches on record means these figures are less reliable than usual.

Event markets

Both teams to score 58%Avg 56%
Over 1.5 goals 77%Avg 75%
Over 2.5 goals 53%Avg 51%
Derby clean sheet 23%Avg 28%
Burnley clean sheet 26%Avg 22%
Over 8.5 corners 70%Avg 66%
Over 9.5 corners 58%Avg 54%
Over 2.5 cards 75%Avg 72%
Over 3.5 cards 55%Avg 50%

This match League average

Predicted Score

1-28.7%
0-18.6%
0-26.3%

Team comparison

Attack Defense Form Discipline Cleansheets
  • Derby
  • Burnley

Did you know?

  • Derby have conceded in each of their last 10 matches.
  • Derby have won just 1 of their last 10 matches.
  • Burnley's matches have gone over 1.5 goals in 9 of their last 10.
  • Both teams have scored in 8 of Burnley's last 10 matches.

H2H

All 3 meetings on file.

DateHomeScoreAway
19 Sep 26 Burnley 1–1 Derby
08 Apr 25 Derby 0–0 Burnley
10 Dec 24 Burnley 0–0 Derby
3meetings
  • Derby win · 0 (0%)
  • Draw · 3 (100%)
  • Burnley win · 0 (0%)
Avg. total goals 0.67 League avg: 2.62
Over 2.5 goals 0% League avg: 51%
Both teams to score 33% League avg: 56%
Whoever hosts wins 0% League avg: 43%
Avg. total corners 10.00 League avg: 10.31
Avg. total cards 3.33 League avg: 3.82
Derby avg. goals 0.33 League avg: 1.31
Burnley avg. goals 0.33 League avg: 1.31

Derby vs Burnley head to head: in the previous 3 meetings, Derby have not won, Burnley have not won and 3 ended in a draw. Derby scored 1 goal and Burnley scored 1 goal in these matches. The latest meeting, on 19 Sep 2026, ended 1-1 at Burnley. Across these matches, both teams scored in 1 of 3 and 0 had over 2.5 goals. Derby kept 2 clean sheets and Burnley kept 2.

How they play

Each line runs across the 24 clubs of the league, from up to the last 19 league games of each. A marker at either end means the most or least of that measure.

Derby
  • Shoots on sight
  • Set piece heavy
Burnley
  • Plays on the floor
  • Possession
    Cedes the ballKeeps the ball
    48% 15th of 24 48% 17th of 24
  • Shot selection
    Shoots on sightWaits for the chance
    0.09 xG a shot 21st of 24 0.11 xG a shot 13th of 24
  • Set pieces
    Open playSet pieces
    36% of xG 5th of 24 22% of xG 17th of 24
  • Route to goal
    On the groundCrosses and headers
    20% of shots 9th of 24 12% of shots 24th of 24

Where they differ

  • Derby go more through the air than Burnley, 20% of shots against 12%.
  • Derby get more of their chances from set pieces than Burnley, 36% against 22%.
  • Burnley wait for better chances than Derby, 0.11 xG a shot against 0.09.

Ball Stats (Last 10 games)

Derby Burnley
9 (0.9 avg) Goals 16 (1.6 avg)
129 (12.9 avg) Total Shots 138 (13.8 avg)
41 (4.1 avg) Shots on Target 45 (4.5 avg)
41 (4.1 avg) Blocked Shots 43 (4.3 avg)
57 (5.7 avg) Corners 43 (4.3 avg)
720 (80.0 avg) Attacks 697 (77.4 avg)
408 (45.3 avg) Dangerous Attacks 351 (39.0 avg)
90 (9.0 avg) Key Passes 94 (9.4 avg)
3844 (384.4 avg) Passes 4093 (409.3 avg)
3007 (78%) Pass Accuracy 3218 (79%)
48% Ball Possession 46%

Disciplinary/Tackles (Last 10 games)

Derby Burnley
1 (0.1 avg) Red Cards 0 (0.0 avg)
18 (1.8 avg) Yellow Cards 19 (1.9 avg)
182 (18.2 avg) Tackles 155 (15.5 avg)
112 (11.2 avg) Fouls 94 (9.4 avg)
26 (2.6 avg) Offsides 30 (3.3 avg)
503 (50.3 avg) Duels Won 403 (40.3 avg)
180 (18.0 avg) Aerial Duels Won 105 (10.5 avg)

Previous Game Statistics (Last 10)

Derby

1.5Goals
  • Under · 2 (20%)
  • Over · 8 (80%)
7.5Corners
  • Under · 1 (11%)
  • Over · 8 (89%)
2.5Goals
  • Under · 5 (50%)
  • Over · 5 (50%)
8.5Corners
  • Under · 1 (11%)
  • Over · 8 (89%)
3.5Goals
  • Under · 6 (60%)
  • Over · 4 (40%)
9.5Corners
  • Under · 4 (44%)
  • Over · 5 (56%)
CS
  • Yes · 0 (0%)
  • No · 10 (100%)
BTTS
  • Yes · 7 (70%)
  • No · 3 (30%)

Burnley

1.5Goals
  • Under · 1 (10%)
  • Over · 9 (90%)
7.5Corners
  • Under · 2 (22%)
  • Over · 7 (78%)
2.5Goals
  • Under · 4 (40%)
  • Over · 6 (60%)
8.5Corners
  • Under · 4 (44%)
  • Over · 5 (56%)
3.5Goals
  • Under · 5 (50%)
  • Over · 5 (50%)
9.5Corners
  • Under · 7 (78%)
  • Over · 2 (22%)
CS
  • Yes · 2 (20%)
  • No · 8 (80%)
BTTS
  • Yes · 8 (80%)
  • No · 2 (20%)