Estrela Amadora vs Nacional

Sun 07 Feb, 11:00 UTC · Matchweek 21 · probabilities and historical statistics

Predicted outcome

Estrela Amadora win · Most likely 45.3%
Draw 23.8%
Nacional win 30.9%

Event markets

Both teams to score 54%Avg 49%
Over 1.5 goals 73%Avg 74%
Over 2.5 goals 50%Avg 52%
Estrela Amadora clean sheet 30%Avg 31%
Nacional clean sheet 22%Avg 26%
Over 8.5 corners 48%Avg 56%
Over 9.5 corners 35%Avg 44%
Over 2.5 cards 86%Avg 85%
Over 3.5 cards 71%Avg 72%

This match League average

Predicted Score

1-011.4%
2-19.2%
2-07.3%

Team comparison

Attack Defense Form Discipline Cleansheets
  • Estrela Amadora
  • Nacional

Did you know?

  • Estrela Amadora have conceded in each of their last 10 matches.
  • Estrela Amadora's matches have gone over 1.5 goals in 9 of their last 10.
  • Nacional have won just 1 of their last 10 away matches.
  • Nacional have picked up just 1.2 cards per game over their last 10, well below the league average of 2.5.

H2H

All 5 meetings on file.

DateHomeScoreAway
30 Aug 26 Nacional 2–3 Estrela Amadora
04 Apr 26 Nacional 2–0 Estrela Amadora
09 Nov 25 Estrela Amadora 1–1 Nacional
06 Apr 25 Nacional 0–1 Estrela Amadora
10 Nov 24 Estrela Amadora 2–0 Nacional
5meetings
  • Estrela Amadora win · 3 (60%)
  • Draw · 1 (20%)
  • Nacional win · 1 (20%)
Avg. total goals 2.40 League avg: 2.63
Over 2.5 goals 20% League avg: 52%
Both teams to score 40% League avg: 49%
Whoever hosts wins 40% League avg: 41%
Avg. total corners 10.40 League avg: 9.24
Avg. total cards 4.40 League avg: 4.95
Estrela Amadora avg. goals 1.40 League avg: 1.32
Nacional avg. goals 1.00 League avg: 1.32

Biggest win: Nacional 2–0 Estrela Amadora (04 Apr 26).

Estrela Amadora vs Nacional head to head: in the previous 5 meetings, Estrela Amadora have won 3 times, Nacional have won once and 1 ended in a draw. Estrela Amadora scored 7 goals and Nacional scored 5 goals in these matches. The latest meeting, on 30 Aug 2026, was won 3-2 by Estrela Amadora, away at Nacional. Across these matches, both teams scored in 2 of 5 and 1 had over 2.5 goals. Estrela Amadora kept 2 clean sheets and Nacional kept 1.

How they play

Each line runs across the 18 clubs of the league, from up to the last 19 league games of each. A marker at either end means the most or least of that measure.

Estrela Amadora
  • Open play side
  • Cedes possession
  • Selective shooters
Nacional
  • Crosses and headers
  • Shoots on sight
  • Possession
    Cedes the ballKeeps the ball
    47% 13th of 18 48% 11th of 18
  • Shot selection
    Shoots on sightWaits for the chance
    0.11 xG a shot 6th of 18 0.09 xG a shot 15th of 18
  • Set pieces
    Open playSet pieces
    22% of xG 15th of 18 28% of xG 8th of 18
  • Route to goal
    On the groundCrosses and headers
    20% of shots 6th of 18 21% of shots 3rd of 18

Where they differ

  • Estrela Amadora wait for better chances than Nacional, 0.11 xG a shot against 0.09.
  • Nacional get more of their chances from set pieces than Estrela Amadora, 28% against 22%.

Ball Stats (Last 10 games)

Estrela Amadora Nacional
15 (1.5 avg) Goals 9 (0.9 avg)
130 (13.0 avg) Total Shots 109 (10.9 avg)
39 (3.9 avg) Shots on Target 32 (3.2 avg)
33 (3.3 avg) Blocked Shots 30 (3.0 avg)
40 (4.0 avg) Corners 43 (4.3 avg)
839 (83.9 avg) Attacks 672 (74.7 avg)
438 (43.8 avg) Dangerous Attacks 316 (35.1 avg)
91 (10.1 avg) Key Passes 83 (8.3 avg)
4179 (417.9 avg) Passes 3787 (378.7 avg)
3487 (83%) Pass Accuracy 3062 (81%)
51% Ball Possession 47%

Disciplinary/Tackles (Last 10 games)

Estrela Amadora Nacional
0 (0.0 avg) Red Cards 1 (0.1 avg)
21 (2.1 avg) Yellow Cards 16 (1.6 avg)
166 (16.6 avg) Tackles 175 (17.5 avg)
116 (11.6 avg) Fouls 111 (11.1 avg)
10 (1.4 avg) Offsides 12 (1.2 avg)
424 (47.1 avg) Duels Won 476 (47.6 avg)
110 (12.2 avg) Aerial Duels Won 143 (14.3 avg)

Previous Game Statistics (Last 10)

Estrela Amadora

1.5Goals
  • Under · 1 (10%)
  • Over · 9 (90%)
7.5Corners
  • Under · 4 (44%)
  • Over · 5 (56%)
2.5Goals
  • Under · 3 (30%)
  • Over · 7 (70%)
8.5Corners
  • Under · 4 (44%)
  • Over · 5 (56%)
3.5Goals
  • Under · 5 (50%)
  • Over · 5 (50%)
9.5Corners
  • Under · 5 (56%)
  • Over · 4 (44%)
CS
  • Yes · 0 (0%)
  • No · 10 (100%)
BTTS
  • Yes · 7 (70%)
  • No · 3 (30%)

Nacional

1.5Goals
  • Under · 4 (40%)
  • Over · 6 (60%)
7.5Corners
  • Under · 3 (33%)
  • Over · 6 (67%)
2.5Goals
  • Under · 6 (60%)
  • Over · 4 (40%)
8.5Corners
  • Under · 3 (33%)
  • Over · 6 (67%)
3.5Goals
  • Under · 6 (60%)
  • Over · 4 (40%)
9.5Corners
  • Under · 3 (33%)
  • Over · 6 (67%)
CS
  • Yes · 3 (30%)
  • No · 7 (70%)
BTTS
  • Yes · 3 (30%)
  • No · 7 (70%)